http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com Emerging Europe Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2012, Business Monitor International Ltd Fri, 03 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT Fri, 03 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator According to reports released by Slovenia's new coalition government, cuts to military spending will be sought to help fund broader economic reforms. While the country's current number of soldiers is not specifically expected to be cut, Slovenia's contribution to the budgets of NATO and the EU is tabled to decline. In other efforts to reduce the government's budget expenditures, the total number of ministries in government will be cut from 15 to 11, while elsewhere bureaucratic efficiencies will be http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108654/Slovenia.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Bulgaria's international currency reserves excluding gold increased to EUR11.0bn in December, from EUR10.8bn in November. In month-on-month terms this means foreign currency reserves grew by 2.0%, while in year-on-year terms they grew by 1.5% for the month of December. The end of year figure was slightly below our end-2011 forecast of EUR11.3bn, however for now we are sticking to our end-2012 forecast of EUR12.7bn, which translates to US$17.0bn. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108652/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bulgaria.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Industrial production growth came in at 0.3% y-o-y in November, bringing the year-to-date average to 3.1% (down from 4.3% over the January-August period). While we estimate average industrial production growth of 3.0% in 2011, we expect this to fall in 2012 to 2.0% owing to the slowdown in both the domestic and external economic sectors. A tentative recovery will be witnessed in 2013, with industrial production growth at 4.0% by year-end (3.5% average growth over the course of the year). http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108653/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Slovenia.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT According to a recent poll conducted by the Sofia-based Centre for Analyses and Marketing, Bulgaria's centre-right ruling party, GERB, maintains the highest popularity among Bulgarians. Around 32.7% of respondents to the poll said they would vote for GERB if there were parliamentary elections now, with the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party only getting 17.8% of the vote. The ethnic Turkish Movement For Rights and Freedoms would gather 5.7% of the vote, while a newly formed political party of former EU Commissioner Meglena Kuneva (currently a civic movement and not a party) would potentially garner 5.7% of voting intentions. The country's traditional http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108651/Bulgaria.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT According to a report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Albanian citizens believe corruption is the second most pressing issue in the country after endemic unemployment. Over the last year, 28.3% of interactions between citizens and the public authorities were found to have involved bribery. The main motivations for paying a bribe were to receive better treatment (71% of cases), to speed up a procedure (9%) or to avoid the payment of an official fine (9%). We believe that corruption is one of the most pressing issues for Albania both politically and from a business environment standpoint, http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108616/Albania.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Growth in foreign investment is likely to come in strong in 2011, providing both cover for Macedonia's current account deficit and helping to create much-desired jobs. However, political risks and chronic unemployment will continue to restrict Macedonia's ability to draw in investment, and we expect the country's FDI inflows to lag behind larger Balkan states such as Serbia and Croatia. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108614/Modest-Hopes-For-FDI.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Growth in exports throughout the majority of 2011 was almost evenly matched by growth in imports, which has seen a continued widening of Lithuania's trade in goods gap to EUR1.45bn in the first 11 months of the year. Exports rose 30.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the January-November period, reaching EUR18.43bn, while imports grew by an equally robust rate of 30.3% y-o-y over the same period to EUR19.88bn. The high reliance on capital goods imports to sustain Lithuania's export growth throughout 2010 and 2011 has helped to push the country's current account back into deficit, and we are currently pencilling in a current account shortfall of 1.1% of GDP 2012. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108615/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Lithuania.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Despite overshooting our 2011 estimate of 4.9% real GDP growth - with the economy expanding by 5.8% last year - we believe that the sharp slowdown in economic activity in Q411 highlights how weaker external demand is beginning to catch up with Lithuania's economic recovery. We therefore hold to our forecast of just 0.1% real GDP growth in 2012, and highlight that further headwinds from the eurozone debt crisis present additional downside risks. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108612/Economic-Slowdown-Already-Underway.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Albania's relatively low level of trade and financial integration with Western Europe will not protect its economy from the marked deterioration that has occurred in eurozone macroeconomic and financial market conditions over the past few months. The eurozone appears to have slumped into recession with Italy, Albania's largest export market, at the epicentre of the region's current woes. We forecast Albania's real economic growth at 2.5% in 2012, down from 3.5% in 2011. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108613/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Albania.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT High levels of unemployment have prevented a meaningful recovery in our short-term political risk ratings for Lithuania. Indeed, although unemployment reportedly fell to 14.8% in Q311, down from 15.6% in Q2 and 17.2% in Q1, our social stability score for the country remains at a lowly 57.5. Youth unemployment, in particular, is a concern with 31.7% of people aged 15-24 unable to find work in Q311. We believe that 2012 is shaping up to be another challenging year for the Lithuanian economy, which could yet exacerbate existing social pressures and could severely punish the centre-right government at the polls later this year. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108611/Lithuania.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Romania's official reserves increased to EUR37.3bn in December, from EUR36.0bn in November. The country's international foreign currency reserves (excluding gold) also increased by 4.6% on a month-on-month basis, or 3.4% y-o-y, to EUR33.2bn, from EUR31.7bn, in the same period. Given our expectation for a widening of the country's current account deficit and narrowing financial account surplus we still expect foreign currency reserves excluding gold to come under pressure in 2012, and forecast them to reach EUR35.0bn by end-year. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108610/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Romania.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT he centre-right coalition government has come together and tentatively approved a proposal from Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek, also the leader of the coalition party Top 09, to contribute a EUR1.5bn to the IMF. The loan is less than was originally sought by the EU/IMF to bolster the IMF's firepower with regards to troubled European states. Given the fractious nature of the coalition and the fiscal prudence for which these parties are renowned, we view this development positively. However, given that President Vaclav Klaus has vowed not to hand over any more powers to the EU during his term (ending in 2013), we are sceptical that this will be approved at the presidential level. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108609/Czech-Republic.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Czech industrial output rose 5.4% y-o-y in November, compared with a 1.7% increase in October, according to figures revealed by the statistical office. The growth was largely unexpected by analysts. The value of new orders increased by 4.0% y-o-y, while domestic new orders declined by 6.8% with non-domestic orders growing 10.6%. Seasonally adjusted industrial production expanded 2.7% m-o-m in November. Given our expectation for a slowdown in German economic activity through the first half of 2012, we forecast Czech IP growth to ease to average 1.8% in 2012 from our estimate of 7.0% in 2011. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108608/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Czech-Republic.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Following weeks of anti-austerity protests across Romania, the government is now faced with another protest, as Gabriel Resources Ltd 's Rosia Montana gold-mine project triggered protests on January 28. Hundreds of Romanians gathered in the Rosia Montana village - in the centre of the country - to support the Canadian company's project for creating employment in the area. At the same time, hundreds of demonstrators gathered in Bucharest to oppose the project, citing its use of cyanide to extract gold as the reason. The recent anti-austerity demonstrations are likely to continue in the run-up to November's presidential election, and the growing antipathy towards the government will likely see civil society groups voice their discontent. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108607/Romania.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT The break-up of Mongolia's ruling coalition suggests that both major parties are likely to commence their campaigning ahead of June's parliamentary election. Should tensions between both the Democratic Party and the remaining Mongolian People's Party continue to rise ahead of the vote, we caution that the policy-making process in Mongolia could suffer as a result and hurt the country's political risk profile. We have revised down our short-term political risk ratings accordingly. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/108555/Coalition-Break-Up-Signals-More-Confrontational-Election.html Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT