http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com Emerging Europe Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2009, Business Monitor International Ltd Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:30 GMT Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator According to latest data from the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, M1 money supply came in at BAM5.53bn at the end of April, representing a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78883/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bosnia-Herzegovina.html Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT On June 2, men in black T-shirts - reportedly bearing the logo of Greek far-right party Chrysi Avyi ('Golden Dawn') - stormed an Athens publicity event for a new Greek-Macedonian dictionary. Macedonia's major political parties condemned the incident, and called on Athens to both find the perpetrators and prevent future incidents. However, we caution that with both governments' popularity likely to suffer as the recession drags on, the allure of nationalistic populism will be strong. We therefore stress that ties are likely to remain strained, and that a resolution of the ongoing 'name' dispute is unlikely in the near term. Meanwhile, Macedonian industrial production shrank by 15.3% y-o-y in May, a further deterioration from the 7.7% contraction seen in April. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78931/Dictionary-Attack-Defines-Ties.html Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT On June 22, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stated that he supports the efforts of outgoing Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin to restore order in the country following the disputed April 5 parliamentary election. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin also stated that Moldova could receive US$500mn of financial aid from Moscow, with the first US$150mn tranche possible in 6-8 weeks. Meanwhile, Moldovan CPI growth fell to -1.6% y-o-y in May, from -0.3% in April. This means that Moldova has now entered consumer price deflation, having posted multi-year high inflation of 16.9% y-o-y in May 2008. The speed of disinflation in turn explains the National Bank of Moldova's June 19 decision to cut its key base rate by 100bps to 9.00% - a record low. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78930/Russian-Backing.html Mon, 29 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Macedonian inflation ticked up to 0.4% y-o-y in May, from -0.2% in April. The increase owed principally to strong price growth of 7.9% y-o-y in the utilities component, coupled to still-positive price growth of 1.5% in the food component. By contrast, the main factor keeping inflation weighed down was the transport component, where prices contracted by 13.7% y-o-y. Going forward, we maintain that Macedonian inflation will remain weighed down through the medium term on the back of ongoing global and domestic demand destruction. We forecast CPI growth of 0.3% y-o-y at end-2009, followed by 2.5% at end-2010. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78884/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Macedonia.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Following a meeting in Ottawa between Mongolian Agricultural Minister Tunjin Badamjunai and Canadian Agricultural Minister Gerry Ritz, Ulan Bator agreed to allow imports of a wide swathe of Canadian agricultural products. The agreement bodes well for Mongolian-Canadian relations going forward, particularly given the growing importance of bilateral trade between the two states. Indeed, as one of the largest foreign investors in Mongolia - the majority of which is directed towards the mining sector - Canadian financing remains crucial to the country's long-term growth potential. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78881/Ratings-Downgrade.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Moldovan GDP contracted by 6.9% y-o-y in real terms in Q109, according to national accounts data. This sharp deterioration was particularly driven by a 10.2% contraction of household consumption and a 36.4% contraction of gross fixed capital formation. With external demand and foreign capital and remittance inflows set to remain markedly depressed through the medium term, we hold to our forecast for real GDP to fall by 3.8% this year, with the full-year figure likely to benefit from a stabilisation of the global economic climate in H209. However, we caution that risks are weighted heavily to the downside, the country's relatively low degree of integration with the global financial system notwithstanding. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78882/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Moldova.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Macroeconomic http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78880/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Mongolia.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT On June 25, Hungarian Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai stated that he has complete confidence in National Bank of Hungary (NBH) Governor Andras Simor, and called Simor the victim of a slander campaign. This defence from Bajnai came in response to calls from both the opposition Fidesz party and several senior Socialist Party politicians who have called on Simor to resign, citing allegations of foreign investments on which the NBH governor may have avoided paying Hungarian taxes. Both Simor and Bajnai have previously argued that Fidesz and the renegade Socialists' criticism of Simor was politically motivated, aimed at further profiting from the Hungarian government's economic policy woes. Going forward, we highlight that Simor's professional future will be bolstered by Bajnai's firm endorsement, but caution that the precedent of party politicians trying to oust the NBH governor could be a concerning sign of political attempts to influence monetary policy. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78879/Independence-Under-Fire.html Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Macroeconomic data http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78853/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Ukraine.html Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Former Czech Prime Minister and leader of the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) Mirek Topolanek stated on June 25 that Prague's six-month Presidency of the EU in H109 was a 'wasted chance.' He argued that the Czech Presidency has had some notable successes, namely in brokering the US-EU Summit in April, resisting protectionism amid the recession, and pushing forward the EU debate on energy security. In the economic sphere, the Czech koruna has rallied by 12.4% since its February 17 multi-year low to trade at CZK26.06/EUR as of June 25. However, despite these recent gains, we caution that medium-term pressures will remain weighted to the downside. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78851/Wasted-Chances.html Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Ukraine's parliament voted overwhelmingly on June 23 in favour of setting the next date for presidential elections on January 17. Indeed, 399 deputies in Ukraine's 450-seat parliament backed the resolution. The date to elect the country's next head of state had been uncertain for several weeks, after the Constitutional Court struck down parliament's earlier decision to hold early elections in October 2009. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78852/Elections-Called.html Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Hungarian industrial production contracted by a shocking 27.1% y-o-y in April, compared to a reduction of only 15.6% in March, although the Central Statistical Office points out that the April collapse was exacerbated by calendar effects. Moreover, national accounts data showed real GDP contracting by 6.7% y-o-y in Q109 - worse than the -6.4% growth figure suggested by the earlier preliminary estimate. With retail sales and construction output also posting consistent negative growth over recent months, this confirms our view that Q209 will have witnessed a similarly weak economic outturn, and we hold to our view for real GDP to contract by 6.4% this year and grow by only 0.1% in 2010. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78849/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Hungary.html Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Czech consumer sentiment ticked up to -16.0 and -17.0 in May and June, respectively, after averaging -25.5 over January-April. Similarly, business sentiment rose to -8.1 and -9.0 in the same respective two months, compared to -10.3 averaged over the first four months of the year. These modest improvements in households' and firms' assessments of the Czech economy's health may bode well for the slowing of the economic contraction in H209. However, we also caution that such surveys are likely indicative of the fact that aggregate demand has already become so weak that consumers and businesses struggle to see how conditions could become worse going forward. Moreover, we note that the June figures were worse than those seen in May, and caution that economic sentiment could yet take another significant leg down. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78850/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Czech-Republic.html Thu, 25 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT The Bosnian parliament adopted a controversial protectionist law on June 22 which intends to safeguard its local farmers from the influx of imported goods from neighbouring countries. As we previously cautioned, the adoption of this law is expected to breach the existing regional CEFTA free trade agreement, and may lead to a deterioration of the country's trade relations with other states in the region, particularly Serbia and Croatia. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78809/Protectionist-Policies.html Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT In a move which will help bolster Slovakia's efforts at greater integration with euro-Atlantic institutions, parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of deploying up to 16 addition troops to the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan on June 19. A total of 134 members of parliament voted in favour of deploying additional troops, while one lawmaker abstained, four did not vote, and 11 were not present. Slovakia currently has 231 soldiers deployed throughout the country, most of whom operate in the southern provinces. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/78806/Troop-Surge.html Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT