http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com Emerging Europe Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2010, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator A coordinated opposition demonstration in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad held on February 4 attracted 10,000 protestors. The demonstration was organised by non governmental organisation Spravedlivost, which was formed by auto traders negatively impacted by the introduction of car import tariffs in 2009. The protest was attended by members of disparate opposition parties, as well as a wide range of unemployed workers. We caution that public discontent with worsening economic conditions is likely to continue in 2010, accentuating security risks and the likelihood of strikes and further protests. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86589/Opposition-Protests.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT We forecast the level of public sector debt in Slovenia to rise further in 2010, to 48.0% of GDP. A weak macroeconomic recovery will keep budget revenues weighed down, while the government's ongoing fiscal stimulus will simultaneously elevate expenditures. Beyond 2011, an expected regional and domestic demand recovery should lower the public sector borrowing requirement and as a result, we expect the debt load to fall from thereon, declining back to 40.8% of GDP by end-2014. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86590/Public-Debt-To-Rise-Further.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Russian President Dmitry Medvedev invited Ukraine's President Viktor Yanukovich to visit Moscow on February 15 in a bid to renew ties with Kiev. In his letter of invitation, Medvedev noted that Yanukovich's election reflects Ukrainians' desire to put end previous failed attempts to resolve years of acrimony between the two nations under the outgoing president. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86588/Balancing-Act.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Russian inflation fell further in January, to a 32-month low of 8.0% y-o-y. Even as commodity prices rose through to January, weak domestic demand linked to a still struggling banking sector ensured that pressures remained disinflationary. On the back of low consumer price growth, the Central Bank of Russia cut the policy rate by 25 bps on February 24, to a record low 8.50%. Though we believe that disinflation is likely to run further, a tentative macroeconomic recovery through H210 should push headline consumer price growth back to 9.50% by end-year. In line with the inflation outlook, we also maintain that interest rates will be hiked back to 9.50% over the same period. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86586/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Russia.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Underlying socio-ideological divisions will continue to pose serious challenges to political stability in Turkey for the foreseeable future. Sporadic crises on the back of ructions between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government and secularist institutions, including the military and the judiciary, should be expected. We stress though, that with the government maintaining a plurality of public support, that the likelihood of a permanent policy reversal or a military coup as seen in the 1980's and 1990's is limited. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86587/Expect-More-Political-Crises.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT A coordinated opposition demonstration in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad held on February 4 attracted 10,000 protestors. The demonstration was organised by non governmental organisation Spravedlivost, which was formed by auto traders negatively impacted by the introduction of car import tariffs in 2009. The protest was attended by members of disparate opposition parties, as well as a wide range of unemployed workers. We caution that public discontent with worsening economic conditions is likely to continue in 2010, accentuating security risks and the likelihood of strikes and further http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86584/Opposition-Protests.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Industrial production in Ukraine continues to rebound according to latest data from the State Statistics Committee, with output expanding 11.8% y-o-y in January, compared to growth of 7.4% and 8.6% in December and November respectively. In contrast, at the same point last year, output fell 34.1% y-o-y. Though a tentative macroeconomic recovery across the region has certainly helped boost production figures, we caution that the primary cause of the surge in the headline print has been low base effects. We forecast IP expanding 8.0% y-o-y by end-2010. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86585/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Ukraine.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT A row between the government and the judiciary developed in February over a disagreement concerning the conduct of a court decision to arrest a prosecutor on charges of conspiracy to overthrow the government. The Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), who have traditionally opposed the moderate Islamist government, fired the prosecutors who had originally ordered the arrest of the prosecutor accused of conspiracy. The government contended that the HSYK had exceeded its authority and subsequently threatened to hold a referendum on judicial reforms to curb the body's power. The row reflects ongoing social divisions between secularist and moderate Islamist http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86583/Judiciary-Row.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Industrial output growth surged to 25.2% y-o-y in December, the highest growth recorded under the Statistical Institute's current index series. Though statistical base effects played a major role bolstering the headline growth figure, the output index did rise back to 117.1, in line with production levels seen in the boom period of 2007. The latest industry data reinforces our view that the Turkish economy is among the best positioned in the region to recover quickly and we believe that the outturn bodes very well for real GDP growth in Q409-Q110. We hold to our forecast for Turkey to expand by 3.7% in 2010. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86582/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Turkey.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT A group of Albanian miners went on strike on February 20, demanding that the government of Prime Minister Sali Berisha provide higher pensions, and lower the retirement age to 50 instead of 60. The protest began outside the offices of the prime minister, and led to slight clashes between demonstrators and police officers. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86503/Heading-To-The-Picket-Line.html Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT According to a statement by Lithuania's Finance Ministry in late February, the government of Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius is planning on setting a firm target date for eurozone entry of 2014. Though Lithuania's relatively benign levels of public debt (as a percentage of GDP) and consumer price inflation should be sufficiently low to allow for the adoption of the common currency by the end of our five-year forecast period, the country's bloated budget deficit remains a key concern. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86504/Dropping-The-Policy-Anchor.html Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Industrial production in Lithuania contracted by 6.8% y-o-y in January according to latest data from Statistics Lithuania, compared to falls of 7.3% and 8.3% in December and November respectively. January's print marked the 16 straight month of year-on-year declines, highlight the extent to which output throughout the economy has collapsed amidst the country's severe recession. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86500/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Lithuania.html Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Serbia's stock of foreign currency reserves fell to US$14.8bn in January according to latest data from the National Bank of Serbia, down from US$15.2bn at end-2009. Though we expect the central bank's financial arsenal to remain sufficient to cover the economy's external financing requirements over the medium term, we nevertheless expect reserves to be gradually drawn down over the coming quarters (forecast to come in at US$14.0bn by end-year) as the NBS steps up its interventions on the FX market in a bid to stem the dinar's ongoing depreciation. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86501/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Serbia.html Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Slovenian development minister Mitja Gaspari stated on February 4 that his government would cut the public sector work force by 1% to improve administrative efficiency and as part of a plan to reduce the budget deficit to 1.6% of GDP by 2013. Gaspari simultaneously announced an objective to privatise a large range of state-owned firms, which are estimated to be worth EUR720mn. Despite Gaspari's statement, we maintain that the government will not begin to aggressively address the country's gaping budget deficit (estimated to have totalled 5.9% of GDP in 2009) until 2011 at the earliest. We caution that the necessary http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86502/Fiscal-Austerity-Ahead.html Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT According to latest data from Instat, the Albanian economy expanded by 4.1% y-o-y in the third quarter of 2009, compared to growth of 5.4% in Q2. The transport and post-telecommunication sectors experienced the highest rates of growth in Q3, expanding by 15.5% y-o-y and 34.3% respectively. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/86497/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Albania.html Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT