http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com Emerging Europe Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2008, Business Monitor International Ltd Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:30 GMT Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator In Romanian local elections, held on June 1, both the opposition Democratic-Liberal Party (PD-L), which is closely associated with President Traian Basescu, and the opposition Social Democratic Party (PSD) secured 425 county councilor offices apiece, equivalent to 28.4% and 28.2% of the valid ballots, respectively. In comparison, the ruling National Liberal Party (PNL) secured 279 county councilor offices with 18.7% of the vote. We believe that the municipal elections provide a useful gauge of the political mood ahead of the November 2008 parliamentary election. Indeed, the recent local level election indicates that the key parties in the parliamentary race are http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66883/Local-Elections-Held.html Wed, 25 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT While Romania's economic growth came in at an impressive 8.2% in Q108, up from 6.6% in the final quarter of 2007, we expect the economy to gradually contract through the year with full year growth of 5.6% pencilled in, down from a 6.0% outturn in 2007. We believe that this will be driven by a moderation in both consumption expenditure growth and external demand. Going forward, we expect economic growth to remain solid through our five-year forecast period due to a continued steady stream of capital inflows and robust consumer demand, averaging 5.0% through to 2012. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66884/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Romania.html Wed, 25 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT BMI View: The Kyrgyz government has its work cut out this year, amid soaring inflation, wobbly privatisation plans and ongoing tensions over water resources with neighbouring countries. Increasing assertiveness by the country's incumbents, exemplified by a new controversial media law and the hard balling of key foreign investors, bodes somewhat ill for the future. Continued political ructions are likely to mean a further stalling of reforms and potentially delay the tackling of urgent developmental challenges. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66882/Tensions-To-Linger-In-H208.html Thu, 19 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT The Slovak koruna will cease to exist on January 1 2009, and will be replaced with the euro at an exchange rate of SKK30.13/EUR. The strong conversion rate, at the newly revalued ERM-2 central parity, will help to ensure that inflation does not spike alongside the changeover. That said, the loss of independent monetary policy does raise risks to inflation over the long run, especially as Slovak growth is forecast to outperform the eurozone average through our five-year forecast period. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66776/Koruna-To-Convert-At-SKK30-13-EUR.html Tue, 08 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT The Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), which is charged with overseeing peace in Bosnia, ruled on June 25 that the Office of High Representative (OHR) should remain in place for the time being. The OHR, which was established in late 1995 in a move to secure peace and stability in the country, was supposed to be abolished in 2007 but was extended indefinitely due to political infighting and regional tensions. While PIC has stated that its expects the OHR to be in place until at least 2009, it praised the country for signing a Stabilisation and Association http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66677/IMF-Urges-Reform.html Fri, 27 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT The outlook for the Turkish economy has worsened steadily through the first five months of 2007. Amid spiralling inflation, renewed monetary tightening, a weakening external climate and a spike in import values owing to energy costs, we have revised down our 2008 real GDP growth to 3.8%. We have also extended our downward revisions through the long term. That said, we maintain that the long-term outlook remains distinctly positive. Rising purchasing power and lower interest rates, alongside an improving external climate, should accelerate economic expansion in 2009-2012, with growth forecast to average a robust 6.5% during that period. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66676/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Turkey.html Tue, 24 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT We believe that Bosnia's signing of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the European Union (EU) on June 16 marks a positive step for the country's future political and economic development. Nevertheless, membership of the organisation remains a long way off, as we expect ethnic tensions will remain a key obstacle to the passage of EU reforms and institutional development. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66674/SAA-To-Add-Impetus-To-Reform.html Tue, 17 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT We view the Socialist Party of Serbia's announcement that it will join the pro-Western 'For A European Serbia' coalition and form a government as a highly positive development for Serbia's future institutional and economic development. That said, we caution that policy-formation will remain contentious ensuring that the reform process, while likely to be reinvigorated, will be slow-going. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66675/Coalition-Formation-Supportive-Of-Progress.html Tue, 24 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT Though the Bulgarian economy continued to fire on all cylinders in Q108, we caution that growth will slow towards the end of the year as both domestic demand cools and the external environment deteriorates. Furthermore, while we maintain our long-term positive view for Bulgaria, we caution that a high degree of external exposure and spiralling inflation are elevating the risks of a hard-landing scenario playing out. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66673/Strong-Outturn-In-Q108-But-Slower-Growth-On-The-Horizon.html Tue, 17 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT We forecast that Romania's current account deficit will come in at 14.5% of GDP and 13.1% in 2008 and 2009, respectively and will then start on a downward trajectory, narrowing to 9.6% of GDP at the end of our five-year forecast period. We anticipate that an improvement in external conditions, particularly in the eurozone will help lift exports, narrowing the key trade http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66672/Current-Account-Deficit-To-Contract-Beyond-2009.html Mon, 16 Jun 2008 00:00 GMT Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia region announced that from July 1 its de facto border with the country will be closed after a series of explosions in the territory on June 29-30 which it blames on Tbilisi. Two bombs went off nearby the resort town of Garga injuring six people and a further two bombs exploded in the separatist capital Sukhumi, injuring six. The Georgian government has denied any involvement in the explosions and claims that Abkhazia's allegations are politically motivated. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66670/Growth-Slows.html Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT On the back of rising oil prices, we have revised our Azeri government revenue and expenditure forecasts to the upside, though we are holding to our view that the surplus will come in at just under 1% of GDP. That said, we are concerned that the government's persistent upward revisions of planned spending will exacerbate existing inflationary pressures. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66671/Rising-Fiscal-Spending-A-Concern-For-Inflation.html Thu, 03 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT Azerbaijan's current account surplus increased to US$3.68bn in Q108, an increase of 86.1% y-o-y. Total exports rose to US$7.24bn, undoubtedly buoyed by the rise in global energy prices. Oil and gas exports, which accounted for 96.4% of total exports, rose by a dramatic 84.1% y-o-y in the first quarter. Imports came in at US$1.42bn in Q108, up from US$1.19bn in Q107. We believe that the current account surplus in percentage of GDP terms peaked at 30.4% in 2007. Going forward, we forecast that the current account surplus will come in at 24.6% of GDP in 2008, narrowing to 9.9% in 2012. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66668/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Azerbaijan.html Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT Inflation rose to 15.1% y-o-y in May, up from 12.2% in April- representing a multi-year high for the indicator. Going forward, we expect that inflationary pressures will subside in H208, with our year-end inflation forecast set at 8.0%. That said, the potential for fiscal spending to increase (from the GEL7.29bn we are currently forecasting), in order to reduce public fatigue over its extensive reform of the public sector in preceding years, may send inflation higher. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66669/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Georgia.html Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT Azerbaijan staged its first military parade in sixteen years on 26 June. Azerbaijan showcased troops and a plethora of military paraphernalia including troops, multiple rocket launch systems, armoured personnel carries, tanks and unmanned reconnaissance planes through the capital Baku. While much of the equipment was Soviet designed, troops were kitted out in NATO-style uniforms - part of a planned modernisation of the armed forces. http://www.emergingeuropemonitor.com/file/66667/Banking-Sector-Praise.html Wed, 02 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT