http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com Emerging Markets Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2010, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator On a fundamental basis, the KRW has a lot going for it. However, we believe that the appreciatory bias suggested by South Korea's attractive fundamental picture will be tapered by the unit's vulnerability to bouts of risk aversion. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86713/KRW:-Maintaining-An-Appreciatory-Bias.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Our European market outlook continues to go in our favour, with bullish calls on the Polish zloty, Russian rouble and long-end Czech treasuries playing out further through to March 3. Technical indicators and macroeconomic fundamentals continue to support our http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86712/Zloty-Rouble-And-Czech-Rates:-Going-Our-Way.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT We continue to believe that commodity markets remain highly sensitive to global risk appetite and correlated to equity markets. Given our relatively neutral outlook for equity markets, we see potential for sideways trade for the general commodities complex in coming weeks. Furthermore, we highlight commodity-specific supply and demand fundamentals as price-drivers on a short-to-medium term basis. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86711/Commodities:-Mixed-Views-But-Some-Positives.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT March cocoa looks weak on a technical basis, having recently fallen out of its multi-month uptrend. The sharp push below support in the GBP2,215/tonne area has paved the way for further downside towards GBP2,000/tonne in the coming weeks. Prices should remain under pressure as supportive underlying market fundamentals appear to be waning. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86710/Cocoa-To-Average-GBP1950-tonne-in-2010.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Israel's Tel Aviv-100 Index (TA-100) continues to look good; we expect to see further gains over the coming weeks. The index was trading at 1,124 at the time of writing and remains on track to eclipse its November 2007 all-time high of 1,199. Indeed, the TA-100's strong bounce off trendline support in early February was a clear positive technical signal, as was the more recent push above its January high of 1,109. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86709/Stocks-Heading-To-All-Time-Highs.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Since spiking to a five-week high, three-month copper has pulled back steadily and we anticipate further downside from the current level of US$7,280/tonne. As we highlighted in this space yesterday (see: 'Commodities: Key Levels Of Resistance Under Pressure', March 1 2010), copper prices initially surged higher in the wake of Chile's devastating earthquake. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86662/Commodities:-Copper-Sugar-Look-Precarious.html Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT A renewed boost of confidence in Brazil's economy has seen the government's US$ Global 2027 bond rally in recent trading, with the yield on the instrument compressing towards 6.1% on March 1. Currently coming up against technical resistance, further yield compression may be difficult to come by. That said, should a break of the current resistance level occur, we would look for a move towards 5.8% for the bond, at which point pressure for a reversal would gain the upper hand, in our view. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86661/Charts-Of-The-Day:-Another-Vote-Of-Confidence-For-Brazil.html Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View: We expect the political temperature to rise in Nicaragua in 2010, as President Daniel Ortega ploughs forth with his controversial re-election plans. Any further attempts to side step the democratic process are likely to backfire, with renewed bouts of public unrest far from unthinkable. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86601/Re-Election-Bid-To-Stoke-Tensions.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT The Venezuelan stock market has come under some corrective pressure in recent weeks, undoing much of the thrust seen in the immediate aftermath of the bolivar devaluation. The benchmark Índice Bursátil Caracas (IBC), which comprises 17 key stocks, has lost some 6.5% since touching a 3-year high at 60,582 on January 18. A breach of technical support around 56,000 would in our view set up a move back towards the 50,000 region in the first instance. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86600/Equities:-Downside-Pressure-Likely-To-Mount.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View : The end of the regional recession, stabilisation of currencies and the sharp mitigation of external account deficits have significantly improved the sovereign risk outlook for emerging Europe. That said, wide fiscal deficits will come into increasing focus going forward, especially as a busy election cycle and a weak macroeconomic recovery are likely to continue adding pressure on budgetary dynamics through 2010 and 2011. As a result, we believe that successive upgrades in BMI 's emerging European sovereign risk ratings (SRR) as seen in Q309-Q110, are unlikely in the coming quarters. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86599/Deficit-Risks-Loom.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT The soft commodity complex has been hit hard this week and we see potential for further downside in the short term, particularly for sugar and cocoa. A retreat in risk appetite over recent weeks has particularly undermined soft commodity prices, which traditionally trade in a volatile fashion. Indeed, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports a sharp drop in net speculative positions across the softs complex over recent weeks, which has weighed on prices. Sugar, cocoa and coffee prices should all remain under pressure in the coming weeks, particularly if risk sentiment continues to deteriorate and the US dollar http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86597/Commodities:-Softs-Still-Sinking.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Having just returned from our latest business trip to Dubai, we consider that it is still lagging the rest of the country and indeed the rest of the region in terms of the macroeconomic recovery. Here we look at the economic situation as it stands, and identify some signs to watch out for, which would suggest to us that the recovery is underway. When it does recover, the stock market has considerable potential. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86598/Dubai:-Notes-From-A-City-At-A-Crossroads.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) has long been a regional favourite of ours. The market closed the day at 6,424 and we continue to target 6,578 - the TASI's Q409 high - over a short-term time horizon. A break through this level could presage further gains. On the downside, multi-month technical support comes in at around 6, http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86596/IPOs-Signal-Upbeat-Investor-Sentiment.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT April Brent Crude moved broadly in line with risk appetite over February and will remain vulnerable to shifts in sentiment over the coming months. Nonetheless, we continue to forecast annual averages of US$84.00/bbl in 2010 and US$86.00/bbl in 2011, based on expectations of a continued global economy recovery in 2010. In contrast to broader macroeconomic concerns, oil-specific fundamentals firmed in February. Indeed, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) upwardly revised projections for energy demand growth in 2010, while US crude inventories continued to normalise. Furthermore, underlying political risk has ticked up in recent weeks on the back of continued Iranian http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86594/Monthly-Oil-Metals-Update.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Having just returned from our latest business trip to Dubai, we consider that it is still lagging the rest of the country and indeed the rest of the region in terms of the macroeconomic recovery. Here we look at the economic situation as it stands, and identify some signs to watch out for, which would suggest to us that the recovery is underway. When it does recover, the stock market has considerable potential. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/86595/Dubai:-Notes-From-A-City-At-A-Crossroads.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT