http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com Emerging Markets Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2012, Business Monitor International Ltd Wed, 16 May 2012 06:30 GMT Wed, 16 May 2012 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator Japan officially ran its first annual trade deficit since 1980 last year, according to finance ministry data. The country's merchandise trade shortfall came in at a provisional JPY2.49trn in 2011 - a remarkable turnaround from the JPY6.63trn surplus clocked in the previous calendar year - and the key question for investors going forward is whether the trend of trade deficits is here to stay. As outlined last week http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108481/Charts-Of-The-Day:-Japanese-Yen-Australian-Rates.html Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: The Ugandan shilling is testing long-term resistance on the back of tight monetary policy and consequent lack of domestic liquidity, and the next several days of trading will be crucial for our view on local debt. The recent rally has already had positive implications for our position on the 91-day T-Bill, which has posted more than 6% in gains since initiation less than one month ago. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108460/Shilling-Strength-Bolstering-Debt-View.html Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Our outlook for Western Balkan equities remains firmly negative despite Croatia's CROBEX, Serbia's BELEX15 and Bulgaria's SOFIX equity indices all having experienced short-term bounces as we had expected. These three economies are highly exposed to the macroeconomic headwinds prevailing from Western Europe - we expect the eurozone bloc to contract on aggregate by 0.3% in real terms and European banks to continue deleveraging and divesting to build capital buffers -combined with the compositions of these stock exchanges, we see little potential for a strong recovery in share prices in the coming months. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108459/Western-Balkan-Equities:-BELEX15-Underperformance-To-Continue.html Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Despite high volatility in recent weeks, the Costa Rican colón has rallied over the last few months, strengthening 2.3% from its October 2011 low of CRC521.25/US$, and we believe the unit has potential for further upside in the short term. In line with this view, we have revised up our average and end of period forecasts for 2012 slightly from CRC525.00/US$ and CRC533.00/US$ to CRC515.80/US$ and CRC523.00/US$ respectively. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108458/CRC:-Strong-In-2012-But-Weaker-Thereafter.html Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: Favourable weather, coupled with a larger area planted, form the basis of our forecast for another strong year of rice output in 2011/12.We forecast rice production to grow 4.7% year-on-year to 99.8mn tonnes, a slight way off from the government's target of total rice output at 102.0mn tonnes. India's well-supplied rice market supports our view for rice prices to average lower at US$14.50 this year. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108418/Global-Rice-Outlook:-India-Focus.html Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT The Ghanaian cedi has staged a tentative recovery following a depreciation of over 5.0% since the start of the year, and we believe that the worst is over for the currency. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108417/Cedi:-Is-The-Worst-Over.html Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Having held a positive short-term view on markets throughout January, we are now turning cautious. Following strong gains since the start of the year, many markets look overextended and ripe for consolidation. We are neutral and would have to see a break above key levels of resistance before resuming a bullish short-term stance. Looking further ahead, we do not rule out a resumption of gains later in Q112, but do not foresee a sustained recovery back to H111 highs. Indeed, a challenging macroeconomic environment should keep investor sentiment in check over the coming http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108416/Consolidation-On-The-Cards.html Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We expect moves by the Latvian central bank to shore up growth will have little real impact on forestalling a slowdown in economic growth in 2012. The Bank of Latvia's decision on Thursday January 19 to cut reserve requirements to 2% from 3% on liabilities over two years and from 5% to 4% on all other liabilities has worked to ease interbank lending rates, with RIGIBOR largely falling across the board. The central bank also decided to keep the main policy rate, the refinancing rate on hold at 3.50% for the eleventh consecutive meeting. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108383/CB-Moves-Unlikely-To-Support-Growth.html Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: The Nigerian naira continues to trade at historically weak levels on the interbank market, while the official exchange rate is on the weak side of the Central Bank's targeted currency band. We believe over the short-to-medium term the currency will trade broadly sideways, and we have adjusted our year-end forecast to NGN160/US$. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108384/Naira-To-Remain-Weak-But-Steady-Over-Medium-Term.html Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT The technical picture for the Brazilian real is strong at present, with longer-dated charts also suggesting that the unit will perform well against the US dollar over the next few weeks and months. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108382/BRL:-Strong-For-Now-With-Depreciation-To-Start-In-H112.html Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: In our December oil price outlook we highlighted two factors that dominated the oil market during the course of 2011. Firstly, repeated production outages coupled with the Libyan civil war, resulted in serious supply tightness. Secondly, demand remained resilient despite a deteriorating macro-economic environment. We anticipate that these factors will continue to drive the market during 2012, though we do expect supply tightness to ease gradually over the course of the year. As a result, barring any significant supply disruptions, we expect demand-side considerations to intensify and key price benchmarks to correct to the downside from their 2011 averages. BMI has therefore maintained its forecast at US$102/bbl for Brent and US$93.50/bbl for WTI. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108381/Strap-In-For-Another-Volatile-Year.html Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We are reiterating our constructive view on Brazilian and Colombian equities (see our online service, January 5, Asset Class Strategy), which was based on their attractive valuations compared to regional peers and on a still positive growth outlook for both countries in 2012, especially in the Oil & Gas industry. Over the last week, the technical picture on the Brazilian Bovespa and Colombian IGBC indices has markedly improved, reinforcing the case for a short- to medium-term outperformance of the two markets. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108364/Brazilian-And-Colombian-Equities-To-Outperform.html Wed, 18 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We expect lead to make modest gains over the short-term as the positive gains in January continue, buoyed by a withdrawal of some risk-off sentiment. Three-month lead has traded sideways since the dramatic sell off in September and appears to be forming a base around the US$2,000/tonne level. From a technical perspective, we do not expect a sustained break through medium-term resistance at US$2,200/tonne with H111 highs remaining out of reach. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see a retest of the September lows in the coming months. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108363/Lead-To-Average-US$2100-tonne-In-2012.html Mon, 09 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT The major factors underlying our current market strategy across emerging European asset classes are perhaps, more than ever, policy driven. With the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis arguably the most prominent development overshadowing regional markets, it is political paralysis in the region and a so far anaemic response by leaders in Berlin, Paris and Brussels to the ever-intensifying debt crisis, which has clouded the outlook for demand in Western European markets, raised fears of liquidity constraints and credit availability, and increased the risk of widespread contagion pushing regional banking sectors towards major capital shortfalls. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108362/CEE-Strategy:-Navigating-An-Uncertain-Policy-Environment.html Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Following a torrid 2011 in which the Turkish lira depreciated more than 20% against the US dollar, the currency has enjoyed a reversal of fortunes in the first few weeks of January. Having traded as low as TRY1.9200/US$ at one point in late December, the unit has since appreciated back towards medium-term resistance at TRY1.8350/US$. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/108361/TRY:-2012-To-Prove-Volatile.html Thu, 19 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT