http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com Emerging Markets Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2010, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:30 GMT Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator The base metal complex has been buoyed in recent trading by a strong PMI number out of China, which suggested that manufacturing grew at the fastest pace for three months in August. However, this positive reading has done little to alter our views regarding the base metal complex and we highlight the http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91870/Base-Metals:-China-PMI-Does-Not-Alter-Our-View.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View: We estimate that Ghanaian cocoa production registered a slight y-o-y improvement in 2009/10, helping the global market move into balance in 2009/10 after three consecutive seasons of deficit. In 2010/11, we forecast production to increase again, which will help loosen the market further and support our core view of moderating cocoa prices in H210. We expect Ghanaian production to continue growing over the long term, although this growth will be constrained by government price controls. There is a long term risk that the removal domestic price controls, combined with government investment, could eventually see Ghana overtake Ivory Coast http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91869/Global-Cocoa-Outlook:-Ghana-Focus.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT Since the People's Bank of China announced it would allow greater yuan flexibility back in June, allowing more two-way trade, we have seen just that. The CNY/US$ rate strengthened from CNY6.8300/US$ to CNY6.7683/US$ on the news, and in line with our view has since retreated back to CNY6.8000/US$. We continue to see a move back to our end-year target of CNY6.8300/US$ over the coming months. The 12-month non-deliverable forward is pricing in mild gains over the next year - appreciatory expectations that we see being gradually unwound. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91795/CNY:-Sticking-With-Stability.html Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View: We expect the reduction of Pakistan's 2010/2011 cotton crop on the back of widespread floods to further squeeze the already tight global cotton market. Pakistan begins its cotton harvest year in August and these developments could present more upside pressure on global cotton prices. Growing demand from China, the world's largest importer of cotton, and a rebound in global mill use should also serve to support prices. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91796/Global-Cotton-Outlook:-Pakistan-Focus.html Tue, 24 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT After last week's strong closes, the Mexican IPC and Brazilian Bovespa equity indices have started the week on the back foot, reinforcing our view that a major correction could be drawing close for both markets. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91791/Brazil-Over-Mexico-For-Now.html Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Commodity markets seem to have stabilized around key areas of support, after a confluence of poor data from the US was offset somewhat by positive a IFO reading from Germany. This ties into our view that markets will continue to be buffeted by conflicting dynamics and as such, we see sideways trading ahead - although we hold a bearish bias. Front-month (October) Brent Crude has bounced this morning to trade just above resistance (previously trendline support) at US$74.33/bbl. A weekly close around current levels would be suggestive of continued gains over the very short-term, particularly given that momentum indicators such http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91792/Oil-And-Copper-Finding-Some-Technical-Support.html Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Our global macro strategy calling for a substantial downturn in Chinese and US demand growth in H210 continues to pay dividends for our 'key market views'. Long-held concerns that protracted asset price deflation and a potential double dip in the US labour market continue to lend to our bias favouring falling interest rate expectations and risk aversion. Our call for a bullish flattening of the US 2s10s treasury spread has further moved decisively in our favour, compressing by another 13bps to fall to 198bps over the week of August 23-27, hitting our 200bps target in the process. With leading indicator http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91793/Key-Market-Views:-Macro-Strategy-Playing-Out.html Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Despite a further extension to the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s monetary easing efforts, we believe that global deflationary concerns and dampening risk sentiment will continue to support the Japanese yen over the coming months. However, with the long JPY trade starting to look crowded and the currency's technicals rolling over, a renewed appreciatory surge also appears unlikely. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91794/JPY:-Balanced-Risks-In-2011.html Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT President Cristina Fernández's demand for a review of the 1976 deal that saw Argentina's largest paper maker sold to some of the country's biggest media companies reinforces our view that political interference represents the greatest risk to both the country's macroeconomic and financial market outlooks. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91790/Politics-Reinforces-Fixed-Income-Caution.html Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Recent price action across the softs complex has reinforced our short and medium-term views on the complex, namely: A strong break and close above USc20.00/lb could give the current sugar rally fresh legs. Nonetheless, we still expect prices to turn lower in the coming weeks as global supply improves. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91788/Reaffirming-Our-Softs-Views.html Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Core View: We continue to forecast an average price of US$1,200/oz in 2010, which we revised higher in July (see 'Commodities Forecast: Gold Heading To US$1,300/oz in 2010', July, 22 2010). We have also bumped up our 2011 forecast to US$1,000/oz. Our core macroeconomic convictions imply that investment demand for gold should remain strong in coming months, as global economic growth slows and monetary policy stays loose in developed economies. As a result, we see potential for gold to outperform equities and other commodities in the coming months http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91789/Upside-Risks-To-Average-Price-of-US$1200-oz-In-2010.html Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT The National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) decision to reweight the consumer price index in July does not alter our average inflation forecasts of 11.8% in 2010, and 11.1% in 2011. Although fiscal and monetary conditions will remain loose, this will not translate into higher inflation until bank lending shows more convincing signs of reviva http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91787/Inflation--Looking-Beneath-The-Headlines.html Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Front-month (September) coffee broke decisively below multi-week support on August 24 and looks precarious on a short-term basis. Currently trading at USc166.70/lb, a weekly close below USc165.00/lb could open the door for further downside towards USc155.00/lb in the first instance, with significant risk of an even greater retracement. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91742/Coffee:-Short-Term-Downside-Risks-Mount.html Wed, 25 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Switzerland's banking system looks set to enjoy broad stability as cantonal banks maintain their conservative lending practices while conditions for the two grossbanken, UBS and Credit Suisse, continue to slowly improve. Indeed, both big banks' profitability has bounced back while balance sheets have been repaired. Despite significant systemic tail risks emanating from sovereign conditions in peripheral Europe, we believe Credit Suisse in particular is well positioned for the years ahead. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91743/Grossbanken-Profitability-Bounces-But-Outlook-Mixed.html Fri, 20 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Eurozone assets continue to paint a deflationary picture, underpinning our view that economic activity is set to slow during the second half of the year. With strong Q2 real GDP growth and corporate earnings numbers now largely digested by equity and FX markets in the region, the implications of fiscal austerity and high sovereign debt levels beyond the core states are once again coming to the fore. http://www.emergingmarketsmonitor.com/file/91741/Deflation-Outlook-Takes-Its-Toll.html Wed, 25 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT