http://www.latinamericamonitor.com Latin America Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2010, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT Thu, 04 Mar 2010 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator The weak state of Puerto Rico's economy and an ever growing public debt pile are starting to weigh on the commonwealth's long-end yields. A considerable steepening of the yield curve suggests that credit concerns are set to mount over the medium term, once again raising the spectre of a ratings downgrade for Puerto Rico. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86736/Credit-Concerns-Brewing.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT Dilma Rousseff's popularity is on the rise following her official nomination as the Partido dos Trabalhadores candidate in February. The conservative opposition Partido da Social Democarcia Brasileira will need to kick off its official campaigning, with likely candidate José Serr, seeing his lead in the opinion polls fast eroding. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86681/PT-Campaign-Puts-Pressure-On-PSDB.html Tue, 02 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View: Increased foreign oil investment into Ecuador will be insufficient to cover the projected US$1.6bn fiscal shortfall in 2010. Lack of a united political opposition and rising oil prices could postpone the necessary fiscal rebalancing, although at the expense of a more painful adjustment down the line. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86639/Postponing-The-Necessary-Fiscal-Adjustment.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Consumer price inflation in the Dominican Republic has been picking up in recent months, suggesting that higher fuel costs are beginning to weigh on the consumer price basket. We believe that while monetary policy will unlikely become overly hawkish in the months ahead, the government may look to ease the burden of higher fuel prices. That said, with a new IMF Stand-By facility in place and the fiscal position looking weak, room to manoeuvre is firmly limited. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86638/Limited-Room-To-Address-Higher-Inflation.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 00:00 GMT The introduction of higher reserve requirements on banks signals a normalisation of monetary policy in Brazil. Though the absorption of BRL71bn of liquidity should reduce the need for an aggressive hiking cycle by the central bank as economic activity picks up, we are still forecasting a total of 250bps of interest rate hikes to 11.25% this year. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86551/BCB-Heads-For-The-Exit.html Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Panama's long-term political risk ratings have been downgraded slightly on the back of growing concerns over the impartiality of the country's judiciary. The move to replace a popular attorney general has been widely regarded as politically motivated and has significantly hurt at President Ricardo Martinelli's popularity. Going forward, we see a number of challenges for the president, which could determine the future trajectory of the Panamanian economic and political risk profile. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86552/Addressing-Key-Challenges-To-Hurt-Popularity.html Wed, 24 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Our view that Puerto Rico will see only flat growth in 2010 is supported by latest government revenue data, which reveal the constraints on the authorities' capacity to boost the territory's flagging economy. With the government's ability to tackle rising inflation limited by its lack of an independent monetary policy, we believe the island's economic recovery will be weak. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86352/Rising-Inflation-Compounds-Bleak-Outlook.html Tue, 09 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT The BVI government has outlined plans to reform the territory's electrical infrastructure and to encourage more efficient power usage. The main change will come in the form of a new tariff system, which aims to reverse the widespread lack of confidence in electricity charging by distinguishing between residential, commercial and industrial consumers. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86351/Blackouts-Threaten-Growth-Prospects.html Tue, 09 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT The Dominican Republic's regional economic outperformance in 2009 has been led by the impressive resilience of its services sector, which has posted positive growth throughout the downturn. While we do not foresee headline growth returning to previous highs, we nonetheless believe that a rise in loans to the private sector will see investment pick up, supporting average real GDP growth of 3.1% to 2014. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86350/Investment-To-Drive-Output-Growth.html Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:00 GMT Agreement on a free trade deal between Costa Rica and China should provide an early boost to the incoming Laura Chinchilla administration. However, with the deal predominantly favouring the country's relatively small agricultural export sector, more will need to be done to address Costa Rica's high reliance on manufactured goods exports to the US, where we continue to see subdued demand in the foreseeable future. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86276/FTA-To-Leave-Trade-Concentration-High.html Fri, 12 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Minister of economic affairs, Dr David Estwick has announced plans to establish a central revenue authority, which would combine all of the government's existing revenue collecting agencies. The new entity - potential administrative and organisational structures for which are intended to be outlined by April - is targeted with improving revenue collection, with Estwick estimating that the amalgamated authority would result in a 20-25% rise in government intakes. While an increase of this order would provide a much needed boost to government accounts, we caution that the impact is likely to be muted by ongoing elevated spending levels. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86127/Revenue-Agency-Announced.html Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT We have lowered our short-term economic risk ratings for Central America as the region continues to face an uphill struggle to recover from a challenging global macroeconomic environment. Particular concerns are growing over a build-up of external imbalances, which present the key risk to social and political stability in some of the lower-rated countries. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86128/CentAm-Economic-Ratings-Drop.html Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT Guyana's President Bharrat Jagdeo's visit to Iran in late January has been generating much criticism both at home and abroad. While some of the more far-fetched allegations from political opponents, such as Jagdeo's intention of helping the Iranian leadership develop nuclear capability, have been met with scepticism, Jagdeo has picked a sensitive time to push for greater trade, investment and technological ties with the middle eastern state. With the US government stepping up pressure on Iran to prevent it developing a nuclear weapon, the debate over Guyana-Iran relations is unlikely to die down anytime soon. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86125/Iranian-Relations-Spark-Criticism.html Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT President Leonel Fernández finds himself in the midst of a political media scandal, as details of overpricing in hydroelectric power projects implicate a close political ally of the president. Hector Rodríguez Pimentel, a key ally of Fernández ahead of May's legislative election, is alleged to have misreported the costs of constructing and repairing some of the country's hydroelectric power dams, with mark-ups as high as 1,200% said to have been detected by a recent investigation into the irregularities. Fernández will struggle to distance himself from the ongoing scandal, given that he gave instructions for the tender offers despite warnings of irregularities in the proposals by an Ethics Commission report. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86126/Overpricing-Row-To-Hurt-President.html Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT During the first half of 2009, total FDI into the Dominican Republic fell some 60% compared to the same period in 2008, reaching a total of US$16.12bn according to central bank figures. During this period, only two sectors in the economy actually experienced an increase in FDI levels, namely electricity and mining, rising by 99.0% y-o-y and 27.5% respectively. Meanwhile, tourism, commerce, finance and real estate all saw heavy declines in FDI levels. While we see scope for some higher FDI flows into these sectors going forward, we believe that the declines seen in H109 highlight the difficult external economic backdrop for DomRep. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/86123/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Dominican-Republic.html Wed, 10 Feb 2010 00:00 GMT