http://www.latinamericamonitor.com Latin America Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2012, Business Monitor International Ltd Fri, 03 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT Fri, 03 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator BMI View: Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa's chances of winning next year's presidential ballot - should he chose to stand for re-election - have been boosted by recent developments, which have seen the executive increase its control over the country's political institutions. We view this as negative for Ecuador's long-term democratic credentials, reflected by the weak score in our long-term political risk ratings. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108690/Correa-Tightens-His-Grip.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: Despite strong real GDP growth in 2011, we believe Ecuador's current growth story remains unsustainable. Indeed, our concerns over the investment climate and poor business environment underpin our view for growth to moderate from 8.4% in 2011 to 4.6% in 2012. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108691/Growth-To-Slow-Significantly-In-2012.html Mon, 05 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: We now believe that strong investment will see Suriname's average real GDP growth rate exceed the 5% mark over the next few years, aided by the government's focus on structural economic reform. However, we are not yet convinced that these reforms include a commitment to transparent political process, and if not this growth rate will be unsustainable over the long term. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108630/More-Commitment-To-Political-Reform-Required.html Sun, 29 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: Our long-term growth outlook for Trinidad and Tobago remains bleak due to a dearth of investment in the energy and non-energy sectors, as well as a mixed domestic credit picture. We therefore expect real GDP growth to come in at just 2.0% and 3.5% in 2012 and 2013. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108433/Out-Of-Recession-In-2012-But-Not-By-Much.html Sat, 21 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We forecast Mexico's current account deficit to widen slightly to US$7.6bn in 2012, from US$7.3bn in 2011, as the goods trade deficit and a widening services trade deficit are unlikely to be counterbalanced by slower growth in remittances. The capital and financial account surplus should comfortably cover the current account deficit, however, will remain vulnerable to shocks given the growing proportion of shorter-term financial to total investment. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108276/Growing-External-Account-Vulnerabilities.html Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: The 2012 macroeconomic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean region will be dominated by slower, but resilient domestic demand growth, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimulus and strong fixed investment, although we expect a divergence in political stability. The risks to this generally positive view, however, are significant. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108274/Key-Macro-Themes-For-2012.html Thu, 15 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: The election of a new government in Jamaica's December 29 snap parliamentary poll does not change our bearish view of the country's economic outlook. The new government will be faced with weak growth, high unemployment and rising violence. They also lack policy tools with which to combat these problems, particularly in light of the country's cripplingly high levels of debt and weak fiscal position. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108275/New-Government-Same-Problems.html Tue, 03 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We believe Nicaragua's economic growth will remain modest in the coming years, in line with our forecasts for real GDP growth to come in at 3.3% y-o-y in 2011 and 2012. This will come on the back of slowing private consumption and modest growth in gross fixed capital formation, while net exports will weigh on growth in the coming years. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108272/Modest-Growth-On-The-Horizon.html Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: We expect Guatemala's current account deficit to widen substantially in 2012 on the back of a sharp deterioration in the country's goods trade account. While the financial account has previously funded the trade shortfall, we note increased political risk may threaten future foreign investment inflows, making Guatemala's balance of payments position increasingly precarious. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108273/Balance-Of-Payments-Position-Becoming-Precarious.html Fri, 23 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108271/Strong-Private-Sector-Growth-Unlikely-Despite-Reforms.html Wed, 28 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT Following a break out of its appreciatory trend in late September, the Colombian peso has continued to depreciate, bringing the unit close to its October 2011 low of COP1985.0/US$. Due to a weak technical picture, heightened global risk aversion and the end of the financial year, which has historically presaged further downside for the unit as Colombian-based multi-nationals repatriate their profits, increasing domestic demand for dollars, we are revising down our average and end of period forecasts for 2011 from COP1805.0/US$ to COP1850.0/US$ and from COP1750.0/US$ to COP1970.0/US$. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108268/COP:-Rising-Risks-to-Positive-Fundamentals.html Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: We expect that expenditure will continue to outstrip revenue in El Salvador in 2012, as increased spending on security will offset any additional gains from recent reforms to the country's tax code. We therefore forecast a nominal deficit of 2.1% of GDP, further noting that we expect the country's lack of fiscal consolidation to see the government's debt burden continue to rise. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108269/Security-Concerns-To-Weigh-On-Fiscal-Position.html Thu, 29 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: Structural problems with Mexican state-level financing will keep investors wary of sovereign local debt over the next few months. While ample financing options at the federal level should prevent a near-term credit event, more needs to be done to reassure investors that Mexican state financing is sustainable. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108270/State-Level-Debt-To-Keep-Investors-Wary-Into-2012.html Thu, 22 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: Consumer price inflation in Bolivia remained elevated in November 2011, coming in at 8.3% y-o-y. Though this was the lowest reading since January 2011, inflation remains relatively high by historical standards, largely due to high base money, private sector credit growth and a rising import bill. We believe inflation will temper to an average of 5.0% y-o-y in 2012, as monetary stimulus becomes increasingly ineffective, commodity prices moderate and credit growth cools over the course of the next 12 months. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108265/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bolivia.html Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: Despite the Argentine economy's strong resilience to global headwinds in 2011, we reiterate our view that growth is set for a slowdown in 2012, due to a drag from net exports and a moderation of private consumption and fixed investment. While we see upside risk to our 2011 real GDP growth forecast of 7.0%, we see few risks to our 4.1% forecast for 2012 for now. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/108267/Growth-To-Decelerate-In-2012.html Thu, 08 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT