http://www.latinamericamonitor.com Latin America Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2008, Business Monitor International Ltd Wed, 20 Aug 2008 06:30 GMT Wed, 20 Aug 2008 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator Newly-inaugurated Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo is under intense pressure to deliver on his proposed socialist reforms. However, he is likely to encounter stern opposition in congress to any radical changes, which could seriously hurt Lugo's objectives, and potentially leave the majority of the population highly disillusioned. A rise in social unrest could threaten our short-term political risk ratings http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68305/Lugo-Faces-Huge-Pressure-To-Deliver.html Mon, 18 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT The latest data coming out of Argentina suggests that the economy is in the midst of a slowdown. We are keeping our end-08 and end-09 real GDP forecasts at 6.0% and 3.6% respectively, but caution that given the pro-cyclical nature of economic policy, the risks lie to the downside. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68268/Growth-Slowdown-Underway.html Fri, 15 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT On August 13 Ecuador's Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) announced the start of the campaign for the referendum on the proposed constitution, due to take place on September 28. With 128 parties and political movements now registered, the campaign is shaping up to be a hard-fought battle. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68269/More-Populism-Ahead-Of-Referendum.html Fri, 15 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT After years of unsustainable policies, the decision taken by the Argentine government on July 31 to raise electricity tariffs was certainly step in the right direction. However, we see it as more of a forced response to the growing distortions within the Argentine energy sector (and economy in general) rather than a proactive decision to encourage much-needed investment in the energy sector. Given the mounting pressure on the government's fiscal accounts, we believe that either higher energy prices or severe shortages look likely to add to the country's economic problems over the medium term. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68232/Energy-Problems-To-Persist-Despite-Tariff-Hike.html Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT Due in large part to the 60% surge in the price of natural gas since the beginning of the year, we are revisiting some of our macroeconomic forecasts for Bolivia. We estimate that Bolivia's natural gas exports represent in excess of 50% of total exports, and hydrocarbons related revenues represent roughly 50% of government revenues. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68170/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Bolivia.html Thu, 31 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT In the end, the 'winds of change' that have seen a succession of incumbent administrations toppled by voters across the Caribbean in the last 18 months swept across Grenada too. Despite some opinion polls that gave incumbent Prime Minister Dr Keith Mitchell of the New National Party (NNP) the edge in his campaign to win an unprecedented fourth term in the July 8 elections, it was the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) that came good on the day, sweeping its leader Tilman Thomas, a lawyer and human rights campaigner, into power. On a high turnout, estimated at 75% to 85%, http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68171/Thomas-Wins-Elections.html Sun, 03 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT A peace march took place on August 8 in St John's, Antigua's capital city, to condemn both the brutal killing of a young British couple, who were attacked while taking their honeymoon in Antigua in July, and the island's growing crime problem. The march was attended by around 2,000 people, including the famous former West Indian cricket captain Sir Viv Richards, who called for increased vigilance among the islanders in the face of rising crime. However, as yet, no one has been arrested for the killing of the British couple, and due to the high-profile nature of the murders the http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68145/March-Against-The-Killings.html Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT Corruption allegations, published in the UK's Foreign Affairs Committee (FAC) Report on Overseas Territories on July 6, were denied by Osbourne Flemming, Anguilla's Chief Minister, who labelled them as unfounded and reprehensible. The allegations, pertaining to Anguillan ministers accepting bribes for development contracts, are damaging for the island's image, as they have highlighted both the lack of transparency and overlap between business and government activities. The FAC recommended an independent inquiry into the matter after receiving information that one developer won contracts for three large developments. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68104/Corruption-Allegations-Back-To-The-Fore.html Mon, 11 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT BMI View: As a result of high international commodity prices and slower global growth, Barbados is suffering from classic small island syndrome. Economic data for H108 disappointed, and things are unlikely to improve significantly in the H208. As such, we have downgraded several of our key macroeconomic assumptions and warn that the island's economy could struggle to keep its head above water should tourism receipts start to dry up. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68100/Downgrading-Our-Economic-Forecasts.html Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT BMI View: Faced with growing popular discontent in the run-up to November's gubernatorial elections, Governor Aníbal Acevedo Vilá has vowed sweeping tax relief to hard-up Puerto Ricans in order to shore up his bid for re-election. While such populist policies will be warmly welcomed at a time when living costs continue to rise, we warn that widespread tax cuts would further exacerbate the Commonwealth's deteriorating fiscal position and would not be looked upon too kindly by the major ratings agencies. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68101/Fiscal-Outlook-Remains-Key-Concern.html Mon, 04 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT Guyana's current account deficit widened sharply in Q108 to US$117.1mn, up from US$41.6mn in Q107. The catalyst behind this deterioration was a 44.5% surge in import growth on the back of record global energy prices during the quarter. While energy prices have begun to retrace, and should continue to do so over the remainder of H208, we expect import growth to remain high, while export and remittance growth should continue to cool. As a result, we have revised our current account deficit forecasts for 2008 and 2009 to US$380mn (from US$280mn) and US$350mn (from US$300mn) respectively. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68102/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Guyana.html Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT Puerto Rico's cumulative trade balance registered a surplus of US$7.1bn between January and April, a significant improvement from US$6.1bn in the same period in 2007. While a breakdown of the data is not available, Puerto Rico's export sector has likely benefited from a weaker US dollar in line with trends witnessed on the US mainland. We are maintaining our full-year cumulative trade forecast of US$16bn in 2008. We believe that a dollar comeback in H208 could stifle local export growth, while still-high energy imports will also have a negative impact on the balance. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68103/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Puerto-Rico.html Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:00 GMT Nicaragua continues to post some of the ugliest inflation figures in the region. Headline prices grew by 11.7% in H108 (and an unprecedented 23.1% y-o-y in June) - almost double the government's full-year projection. We are still of the view that inflation will start to cool in the latter stages of H208 as commodity prices continue to come off recent highs. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68095/Inflation-Outlook-To-Remain-Precarious.html Tue, 29 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT According to local newspaper La Prensa, several key leaders of the Colombian rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) were spotted in Managua meeting with President Daniel Ortega in July. The allegations, which Ortega vehemently denies, come after the Nicaraguan leader offered to act as a mediator in talks between the FARC and the Colombian government (a proposal that was quickly rebuffed by Bogotá). http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68096/Bottom-Of-The-Pile.html Thu, 31 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT Panama's economic activity cooled to 7.7% y-o-y in May from 8.3% in April, marking the second slowest rate of growth in almost two years. Economic activity weakness was largely concentrated in the agricultural sector, while construction and real estate - fuelled by the Canal expansion - continue to sizzle. http://www.latinamericamonitor.com/file/68097/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Panama.html Thu, 31 Jul 2008 00:00 GMT