http://www.meamonitor.com Middle East & Africa Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2010, Business Monitor International Ltd Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:30 GMT Thu, 02 Sep 2010 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator The Angolan parliament has approved a revised budget that would see the fiscal position move from a planned deficit of 2.7% of GDP to an estimated surplus of 1.2%. Although the revised budget does involve a minor reduction to spending existing spending plans, the major change was to the benchmark oil price, which was raised from US$58.00/bbl to US$65.32/bbl. Our own forecast, which had long been based on a more optimistic oil price assumption, foresees a deficit equivalent to just 0.2% of GDP. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91897/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Angola.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT Ruling party Frelimo has announced its intention to make several amendments to Mozambique's constitution. The party did not provide further details about what these might entail, but reassured Mozambicans that any changes would be aimed solely at bringing the constitution into line with modern times. A spokesman for the party dismissed rumours that the law would be changed to allow President Armando Guebuza to run for a third term in office. Guebuza, who was re-elected for a second term in October 2009, has stated that he would not be a candidate for third term in elections planned for 2014. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91894/Constitutional-Changes-Mooted.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT The newly formed Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) announced that it has registered about 65,000 members since its inception three months ago. A party source stated that new members were made up of Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) defectors as well as people who had not previously been aligned with any political party. The party also said it has received a large number of applications from Batswana in the Diaspora through its website. The site has received 88,000 hits in its three month existence which the party points to as proof of its burgeoning popularity. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91895/BMD-Drumming-Up-Support.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT Following an August 17 meeting, Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders resolved that all outstanding issues in Zimbabwe's Global Political Agreement should implemented within 30 days of the meeting. The issues, which include key appointments in the government and western sanctions, have been in contention since the formation of the coalition government in February 2009. Although all of the major parties to the deal agreed to the 30-day deadline, it is unlikely that the issues will be resolved within this time frame. President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party refuses to give ground on key appointments until sanctions are lifted. However, http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91896/SADC-Deadline-On-GPA-Issues.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT The All Peoples' Party (APP) has withdrawn from a proposed alliance between several opposition parties after it was asked to forego running candidates in certain constituencies in local elections due in November. The party was particularly angered by the idea that it would not be allowed to contest elections in certain constituencies in the Kavango Region, which has traditionally been seen as its stronghold. The APP's departure shows that the opposition in Namibia is still very much divided along geographic and ethnic lines; as long as this remains the case, it will be very difficult for it to challenge the ruling SWAPO party's dominance. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91891/Opposition-Still-Divided.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT In a highly unusual move, Angola's media regulator, the National Media Council (NMC) criticised state-run newspaper Jornal de Angola, for misrepresenting words spoken by an opposition MP. The opposition member in question was quoted as commending progress made in certain sectors of the economy, which was clearly not the message being conveyed in his speech. While the condemnation was warmly received by other members of the opposition UNITA party, it is only a small challenge to the ruling party's dominance of the media.er http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91892/Media-Regulator-Challenges-State-Paper.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT The SWAPO government plans to continue with a countercyclical fiscal policy, with spending on infrastructure and social sectors set to soar again in FY2010/11. This, combined with tumbling revenues from the South African Customs Union, will ensure that the budget deficit deepens in the near term, reaching 4.0% of GDP by the end of FY2011/12. Given the country's low public debt, our forecast for persistent budget deficits is no cause for alarm. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91893/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Namibia.html Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View: We continue to hold a bearish political and economic outlook on Madagascar, given that a reconciliation between President Andry Rajoelina and the main opposition parties seems a long way off. Although the president has extended a small olive branch in the form of a new political deal with the opposition, it is perceived that his style of leadership is still too unilateral for any meaningful agreement to be reached. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91859/New-Political-Deal-No-Game-Changer.html Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT As the US army is gradually exiting Iraq, with the latest figures at the time of writing leaving around 50,000 troops in the country, we believe that there is an elevated risk that Iraq is not yet ready to effectively govern. Indeed, sporadic episodes of violence still occur across the country and the Iraqi parliament has not yet confirmed a leader following March's parliamentary elections. We believe that the reduction of foreign military presence may lead to a rise in militant-led violence, exploiting the lack of firm security and governance to prolong instability and further their own interests; which is http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91857/US-Departure-Necessary-But-Risky.html Thu, 26 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Based on the latest trends in Angola's foreign exchange market, we retain our view that the currency will appreciate to AOA89.00/US$ by the end of 2010. The case for such a move is supported by recently released data showing a moderation in domestic liquidity growth - an important determinant of demand for US dollars. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91858/Kwanza:-End-2010-Target-On-Track.html Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT BMI View: Lebanon will find it hard to sustain the 2009 level of outperformance, in terms of real GDP growth, but as long as there is no further conflict with Israel, it will be among the strongest performers in the region. We are cautious as to the positive impact of new natural gas exploration activities at this stage. At best, they will reduce Lebanon's import bill, although the trade deficit will remain http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91855/Overheating-Concerns-Are-Overplayed-But-So-Is-Energy-Enthusiasm.html Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT The marriage of convenience between the reformist March 14 and March 8 parties has worked surprisingly well, but things could come to a head now that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) looks as though it will implicate members of Hizbullah itself. For a government which includes Hizbullah to fund and support a tribunal which is accusing members of that organisation of murder and terrorism could be severely destabilising. For its part, Hizbullah does not sound too forgiving: Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem said that the expected findings of the tribunal were 'part of the attempts to weaken and target http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91856/Lebanon.html Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT Construction of the new deepwater container port at Lekki in Nigeria is expected to start in the first quarter of 2011. The proposed port is located 65km east of Lagos and the construction will begin once the government finalises the selection of contractors. More than 30 contractors have shown interest in the construction of the 500ha port.The port is designed to accommodate container ships with a capacity of up to 8,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) and liquid bulk vessels of up to 160,000 deadweight tonnage (dwt). Contractors have until September 2010 to submit their bids, and the selection procedure is due to be completed by the end of 2010. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91851/New-Electoral-Act-Signed-Into-Law.html Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT According to the most recently available data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, reserves had fallen to US$37.7bn in mid-August from US$42.2bn at the beginning of the year. Although we do not see that decline as being a serious threat to the stability of the exchange rate, reserves spent in defence of the naira are one reason why we have lowered our official end-2010 reserves target to US$45.0bn. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91852/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Nigeria.html Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT The proposed peace talks with the Palestinian Authority have been further complicated by an untimely arms deal between Russia and Syria. The Israeli government is concerned that Lebanon's militant group Hizbullah may later be able to gain arms indirectly through this deal, thus further increasing the group's ability to launch a strike on Israel. While internal political risks are relatively low, the ongoing dilemma of relations with the Palestinians and increasingly tense relations with neighbouring Syria and Lebanon have weighed down our political risk rating for Israel. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/91853/Israel.html Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:00 GMT