http://www.meamonitor.com Middle East & Africa Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2012, Business Monitor International Ltd Sat, 04 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT Sat, 04 Feb 2012 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator Rumours that outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh would go into exile in Oman following his departure from Sana'a have proved to be unfounded. Diplomats in Muscat had claimed on January 22 that Saleh was seeking permission from Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said to take up residence in the country, after agreeing to leave Yemen as part of a GCC-backed deal to transition to a new government. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108666/Oman.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Riot police in the city of Jahra used tear gas to disperse hundreds of protestors on January 14, according to witnesses cited by the Associated Foreign Press . The demonstrators were members of the country's stateless 'Bidoon' population, a group of over 100,000 residents who claim to be of Kuwaiti origin, but have been denied citizenship by the state. The government claims the Bidoons destroyed their foreign passports in order to take advantage of the country's generous welfare provisions. The protest was the second in two days in the city, and dozens of arrests have been made. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108667/Kuwait.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We expect public expenditure in Kuwait to increase in 2012. Although government spending plans in recent years have been persistently hampered by political gridlock in parliament, we expect growing public agitation - as illustrated by the wave of protest that hit the country in late 2011 - to translate into renewed impetus for a pickup in expenditure over the coming quarters. We forecast budget surpluses of 27.7% of GDP and 21.3% of GDP in FY2011/12 and FY2012/13 respectively http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108665/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Kuwait.html Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We remain optimistic about the prospects for economic growth in Kuwait heading into next year. We have revised up our forecast for 2011 from 5.3% to 6.1% on the back of higher than expected levels of oil production, while we are sticking to our forecast for real GDP growth of 5.5% in 2012. However, we highlight a number of serious downside risks to this forecast, as global economic woes persist and Kuwait's political situation remains unstable. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108644/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Kuwait.html Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:00 GMT We forecast headline inflation to come in at 26.3% y-o-y in 2011/12, (Iran's fiscal year ends on March 20). According to official figures, inflation currently stands at 20.6% y-o-y. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108643/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Iran.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT POLITICAL RISK - Madagascar Lambasts African Union An official from President Andry Rajoelina's administration heavily criticised the African Union (AU) for what he considered 'double-standards' at the organisation's 18th summit in Addis Ababa. Madagascar was banned from voting for a new AU Chairperson on January 30 due to its suspension from the body following the political coup instigated by Rajoelina in 2009. 'There cannot be two rules, where one rule applies for small countries and another applies for big countries. The situation in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya are similar to those of Madagascar and the question we ask is why treat Madagascar like this?' queried the official. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108641/Madagascar.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Families that were resettled by Brazilian miner Vale in the Tete region of Mozambique are now protesting against the company. The 700 families claim that Vale has failed to keep the promise it made to them in 2009, as they have since been left without essential amenities such as drinkable water and electricity or workable agricultural land at their resettlement area in Cateme. The protesters, who were relocated between November 2009 and December 2010, also complained that their cost of living has increased substantially due to costs associated with the 60km trip to the city of http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108642/Mozambique.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Police were forced to intervene to break up an anti-unemployment rally outside the southern city of Ben Guerir on January 20. During the protest, 70 jobless demonstrators threatened to commit 'collective suicide' by walking into a phosphate quarry. Six people were arrested on suspicion of inciting the rally. The region has the second lowest per capita GDP in the country. Despite relatively healthy economic growth, job shortages remain a problem across Morocco, and the issue has inspired a string of minor protests in recent months. The unemployment rate stood at 9.1% at end-2011. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108638/Morocco.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Iran is ready to revive talks with the U.S. and other world powers on its nuclear programme, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on January 26. Talks broke off over a year ago. This opening may indicate that international sanctions are influencing Tehran's evaluation on the costs and benefits connected to its nuclear programme. Considering that tensions over the programme are threatening domestic, regional and international stability, progress in formal talks would be a welcome development, although we stress that the current stalemate is far from being http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108639/Iran.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Saudi police arrested nine people in the eastern governorate of Qatif on January 24, according to government officials. The region is a centre of the country's Shi'a Muslim minority. The arrested men - all Shi'a - were accused of involvement in the shooting of three security guards, one of whom was killed, in the period January 14-20. Tensions between Riyadh and the Shi'a minority have been growing in recent months, with the latter claiming that they have been subject to systematic discrimination in state institutions. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108640/Saudi-Arabia.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: We expect both imports and exports to continue a steady expansion in 2012. As a result, the trade balance should remain broadly stable as a percentage of GDP; we expect a deficit of 1.7% in 2012, compared to an estimated 1.6% in 2011. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108636/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Madagascar.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT We expect consumer price inflation in Morocco to tick up moderately in 2012. Latest government data show that inflation averaged 0.9% in 2011, but we expect upward pressure on prices to accelerate over the coming quarters. Public sector wage hikes, loose monetary policy and relatively robust economic growth are likely to feed through to consumer spending, though moderating global commodity prices will keep a lid on imported inflationary pressure in the near term. We forecast average inflation of 2.0% in 2012. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108637/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Morocco.html Sun, 30 Jan 2011 00:00 GMT BMI View: We are forecasting Angola's fiscal surplus to widen to 3.5% of GDP in 2012, from 2.1% in 2011. Given that 2012 is election year, we believe that total expenditure will grow considerably, but this will be outstripped by the vast increase in oil revenues. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108634/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Angola.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT Government health workers in Zimbabwe have threatened to join fellow civil servants in a nationwide strike if a meeting with the Health Services Board (HSB) fails to deliver positive results. The president of Zimbabwe Nurses Association, Regina Smith, said health workers want an increase in salaries, housing and transport subsidies and other allowances that are unique to employees in the sector. Smith said the association has already had several meetings with the HSB but it has not made any progress over its grievances. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108635/Zimbabwe.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT BMI View: We anticipate that the Mauritian current account deficit will deteriorate slightly to 8.5% of GDP in 2012, from 7.6% in 2011, before making a modest rebound to 7.2% in 2013. An outlook for weak eurozone growth and stubbornly high oil prices informs our view. While we believe this will be financed by surpluses in the capital and financial accounts, we caution that the volatile nature of bank accounts from foreign depositors could present balance of payments risks in future. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/108632/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Mauritius.html Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00 GMT