http://www.meamonitor.com Middle East & Africa Monitor RSS Feed from Business Monitor International en Copyright 2009, Business Monitor International Ltd Sat, 04 Jul 2009 06:30 GMT Sat, 04 Jul 2009 06:30 GMT AFP RSS Generator President Omar Bongo, who ruled Gabon continuously for 41 years, died of a heart attack on June 8 at a clinic in Barcelona. The president had taken a temporary leave of office on May 7 2009 to mourn the death of his wife, and then flown to Europe, where it was rumoured he was seeking medical attention. His death was initially reported on June 7, but this report was denied by the government. Bongo's death was subsequently confirmed on June 8, ending the rule of one of Africa's longest-serving heads of state. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79045/Past-Its-Peak.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT We believe the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG) is likely to win the next presidential elections, with internal party rivalries presenting the greatest risk to that view. While an outbreak of wide-spread violence could lead to capital flight from current international investors, the threat of civil strive, which has the power to undermine central government stability, appears to be limited at the present moment. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79046/PDG-In-The-Drivers-Seat.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT The Kenyan government plans to assess the prospects for a Eurobond over the coming months. Although the 2009/10 budget does not explicitly include plans for a sovereign bond, the finance ministry's medium-term outlook said that 'the government will reassess the situation in the international capital market in the course of the financial year with a view of accessing it if circumstances permit'. The receipt of finance would help to shore up macroeconomic stability, albeit increasing the nation's stock of total external debt. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79042/Eurobond-Ahead.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT The Sudanese authorities have ended a government monopoly on the production and trade of gum arabic, an edible product used in soft drinks, cosmetic creams and adhesives. Sudan is the world's leading producer of the good. Agricultural officials hope that the initiative will allow private businesses to buy and export the product as well as encourage the use of marketing specialists to help boost earnings. The biggest buyers of gum arabic are France and the US, neither of which impose sanctions on that particular product, despite applying sanctions on a range of Sudanese goods. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79043/Gum-Arabic-Opportunity.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT Jean-Pierre Bemba, the former vice-president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, will face trial in the International Criminal Court (ICC) over charges of war crimes. The court has accused the former leader of being responsible for the murders, rapes and pillaging committed by his rebel troops in the Central African Republic in 2002 and 2003. Despite the relatively high media profile of the cases against Bemba and former prominent DRC rebel leaders at the ICC, they appear to provide no deterrent for small-scale rebel groups to stop human rights abuses in the Eastern parts of the DRC, where militant activity http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79044/Avoiding-Recession.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT We continue to forecast an external debt burden of US$10.4bn (119% of GDP) and US$10.5bn (105% of GDP) in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The IMF currently conducts a feasibility study to determine whether a mining deal with China will jeopardise the DRC's debt forgiveness eligibility. Only confirmation by the IMF that it will continue the HIPC programme with the DRC will lead to a change in our debt forecasts. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79040/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Democratic-Republic-of-Congo.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: We are forecasting a widening of Kenya's budget deficit to KES229.7bn (6.4% of GDP) in 2009/10, from KES160.2bn (5.2% of GDP) in 2008/09, owing to various tax breaks and heavy spending on infrastructure. With around 29% expected to be funded by foreign sources, a renewed wave of international risk aversion poses key risk to the spending plans. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79041/Budget:-Long-Term-Growth-A-Clear-Priority.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT In April, Qatar's M2 money supply fell by 5.7% y-o-y, backing up our view that consumer prices will remain subdued for several months to come. The official methodology for measuring monetary aggregates was recently changed - the current series only goes back to the start of 2007. However, the 'old' data series shows that M2 had not exhibited negative annual growth since the beginning of 2002 (and the slip into negative territory back then had not been so large). http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79037/Money-Supply-Contraction-Will-Keep-Inflation-Subdued.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT In the State of the Nation address at the beginning of June, President Jacob Zuma announced that employment creation will be a top priority for the African National Congress over the coming years. The government will try to create 500,000 additional workplaces by the end of 2009 and a total of 4mn job opportunities by 2014. Given the sharp downturn in domestic economic growth (we forecast a contraction of 1.9% in 2009), we believe the authorities will face considerable challenges fulfilling their objective over the course of this year, raising the risk of industrial action by the trade unions in http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79038/Job-Creation-Takes-Centre-Stage.html Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: Angola and the DRC are at odds over the ownership of Angola's oil reserves, and the issue of enhanced security measures at the shared border. Yet, given the mutual interest in keeping relations cordial, we expect the disputes to stay muted. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/79039/DRC-Relations:-Cracks-Appearing.html Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Despite prices growing by 1.0% on the previous month, consumer price growth continued to slow on an annual basis in May, falling to 12.4% y-o-y from 13.4% y-o-y in April. Core inflation, falling to 10.3% y-o-y is at is lowest since March 2008. Food price growth remains elevated, even if this too is slowing, but the electricity, fuel and utilities non-core component has extended its April contraction, coming in at -2.7% y-o-y in May. We see CPI ending the year at a slightly more benign 10.0% http://www.meamonitor.com/file/78997/Macroeconomic-Forecast-Uganda.html Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: We are forecasting that interest rates will be cut by 100bps over the remainder of 2009, likely beginning with a 25-50bps cut in July. The authorities are in dovish mode, and recognise the need to support private investment. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/78998/Kenya:-Interest-Rate-Cuts-Ahead:-Four-Reasons-Why.html Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT The level of public sector pay remains a problem in Ghana. In mid-June, the Ghana Trades Union Congress issued an ultimatum to the government to do something about salaries for public sector workers, or risk industrial action. The unions are pressing for a 25% salary increase, but the government is unwilling to commit to this amount, owing to the poor state of the public finances. Until an agreement is reached, strikes are likely to occur. However, we expect the protests to be relatively peaceful. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/78999/Public-Strikes.html Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT BMI View: We are forecasting that interest rates will be cut by 100bps over the remainder of 2009, likely beginning with a 25-50bps cut in July. The authorities are in dovish mode, and recognise the need to support private investment. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/78995/Interest-Rate-Cuts-Ahead:-Four-Reasons-Why.html Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT Tension between Kampala and the semi-autonomous Kingdom of Buganda which encompasses the Ugandan capital appear to be on the rise again, with the national government seeking to create a metropolitan authority for the capital city. As part of the process of constitutional amendment, the government is looking to replace the current Kampala City Council with a Kampala Capital City Authority, which will give the central government a direct role in the running of the city and appoint an administrative head of the city answerable to the President's Office. Mengo, the seat of authority in Buganda, has issued a statement opposed to the plan, fearing it to be little more than a means of eroding its authority. http://www.meamonitor.com/file/78996/Buganda-Rejects-Kampala-Plans.html Tue, 30 Jun 2009 00:00 GMT