South Africa

In-depth country-focused analysis on South Africa's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of South Africa's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect South Africa, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact South Africa's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in South Africa before your competitors.

South Africa Country Risk

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Core Views: The South African economy will grow at a tepid rate over the medium term, with real GDP expanding by just 1.8% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015. Our below-consensus view is predicated on...

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South Africa Industry Coverage (24)

Agribusiness

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BMI View: We hold a positive view on the South African agricultural sector and see particular growth potential in the grain and livestock sectors. Both sectors' growth will be boosted by regional...

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Autos

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The outlook for South African new vehicle sales has deteriorated rapidly over the past quarter, with the wider domestic economy risking moving into recession, following the release of Q114 GDP...

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Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators  Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits Other...

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Consumer Electronics

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BMI View: Sams ung 's plan to invest in a local production facility underscores South Africa's regional hub status. There are strong attractions to establishing a local production facility...

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Defence & Security

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In 2014, we believe that the South African defence budget will be worth USD3.6bn. Since the start of the decade South Africa has progressively reduced its defence spending levels. However, we now...

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Food & Drink

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BMI View:  The latest data support our view for slow economic growth in South Africa. Although headline real GDP growth rebounded to 3.8% at a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised...

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Freight Transport

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BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance with regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2014. Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China,...

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Information Technology

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BMI View: IT spendi ng in South Africa is mainly driven by the government and large enterprises . However , there is growing interest in IT solutions among small and medium-sized enterprises (...

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Infrastructure

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BMI View: In line with our view, growth in South Africa's construction industry continues to gather pace, with the industry growing in real terms by 4.9% in Q114. That said, we expect the...

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Insurance

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BMI View: The challenges and opportunities that dominated 2013 will continue to prevail in 2014. Many of South Africa's leading life companies will achieve good growth in premiums and/or profits...

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Medical Devices

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Espicom Industry View :   The medium term prospects for the medical device industry look encouraging; based on current trends, the market, of which over 90% is supplied by imports, is expected to...

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Metals

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BMI View:   South Africa's metals industry will continue to see subdued production activity due to prices remaining below multi-year highs,   elevated energy costs , and labour unrest ....

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Mining

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BMI View: The past decade of minimal growth in South Africa's mining sector is set to continue as the country's gold and platinum sectors face diminishing margins and industrial strife....

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Oil & Gas

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BMI View: South Africa's oil and gas sector is set for growth, as an upsurge in exploration and the increasing prospectivity of the country's offshore acreage point towards considerable upside...

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Petrochemicals

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South Africa's polymers markets are in contraction due to the weakening of the rand and the downgrading of the country's credit rating, according to BMI's latest South Africa Petrochemicals Report....

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: South Africa is the best investment opportunity for multinational drugmakers seeking to enter the African market - boasting the largest medicines market on the continent and po i sed...

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Power

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BMI View:   Our fundamental assumptions of the market continue to be relevant and therefore our short- and long-term forecasts remain mostly unchanged . Eskom continues to struggle to supply...

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Real Estate

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BMI View:   We believe that the real estate sector in South Africa will remain stable , but there are downside risks to our forecasts as a result of macroeconomic headwinds affecting the sector....

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Renewables

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BMI View: We have upwardly revised our wind and solar capacity and generation forecasts this quarter as the South African renewables market continues to strengthen. The attractive regulatory...

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Retail

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BMI View:   Retail sales growth has slowed in 2014 as rising interest rates and weak confidence have take n their toll on the South African consumer. Additional negative factors include rising...

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Shipping

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Growth at South African ports is threatened by the global headwinds that are posing challenges for the country as a whole, namely the China slowdown and the drying up of foreign inflows due to the...

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Telecommunications

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BMI View: The arrival of MrP Mobile and the possible entry of more MVNOs will impact on overall competition dynamics in the mobile market. The increasing fragmentation of the mobile sector amid...

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Tourism

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Arrivals data released by South Africa's Ministry of Tourism in May 2014 show 9.7mn tourists travelled to South Africa in 2013, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year (y-o-y). The majority of inbound...

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Water

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BMI View:   We have maintained our water forecasts this quarter, as South Africa's water industry continues to remain comparatively strong, with a large amount of projects in the pipeline....

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