South Africa

In-depth country-focused analysis on South Africa's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of South Africa's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect South Africa, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact South Africa's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in South Africa before your competitors.

South Africa Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views: BMI sees the South African economy posting tepid growth over the medium term, with real GDP expanding by just 2.5% in 2014. Our below-consensus view is predicated on several factors...

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South Africa Industry Coverage (24)

Agribusiness

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BMI View: We hold a positive view on the So uth African agricultural sector and see particular growth potential in the grain and livestock sectors. Both sectors ' growth will be boosted by...

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Autos

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BMI is forecasting weak growth for the South African economy over the medium term based on a slowdown in China and ongoing retrenchment in the gold mining sector. Recent industrial unrest, that looks...

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Commercial Banking

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Commercial Banking Sector Indicators Date Total assets Client loans Bond portfolio Other Liabilities and capital Capital Client deposits Other...

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Consumer Electronics

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BMI View: There is further moderation to our growth outlook for South Africa's consumer electronics market this quarter on the back of continued macroeconomic headwinds . The rand's continued...

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Defence & Security

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BMI expects South Africa to spend US$3.5bn on defence in 2014. Next year, in 2015, we expect the defence budget to increase to US$4.5bn. This trend will continue into 2016 with the defence budget...

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Food & Drink

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BMI View: We expect to see another positive year for the South African economy and consumer industries through 2014, as the country's economy continues to recover post-recession. We forecast...

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Freight Transport

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BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance with regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2014. Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China,...

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Information Technology

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BMI View: This quarter we extend our five- growth forecast for South Africa's IT market to 2018. We also revise our growth outlook to reflect key macroeconomic and industry-specific factors...

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Infrastructure

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BMI View: Our forecasts for a recovery in South Africa's construction industr y has played out , and actually performed better than we expected, with full year 2013 real growth coming in at 2....

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Insurance

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BMI View: We believe 2014 will be a challenging year for companies in both major segments. Lacklustre economic growth and stubbornly high inflation will crimp premium growth and profitability...

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Medical Devices

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Espicom Industry View : The medium term prospects for the medical device industry look encouraging; based on current trends, the market, of which over 90% is supplied by imports, is expected to...

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Metals

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BMI View: The outlook for South Africa's metals industry is increasingly troubled as persistently low output prices, rising energy costs and further intense wage negotiations with unions are...

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Mining

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The past decade of minimal growth in South Africa's mining sector is set to continue as the country's gold and platinum sectors face diminishing margins and industrial strife. Potential for growth...

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Oil & Gas

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BMI View: South Africa's oil and gas sector is set for growth, as an upsurge in exploration and the increasing prospectivity of the country's offshore acreage point towards considerable upside...

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Petrochemicals

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BMI View: The South African petrochemicals industry is struggling with poor domestic demand conditions, deteriorating risk and a volatile exchange rate. Margins are coming under pressure with...

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Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: A deteriorating macroeconomic outlook for the country in 2013 and 2014 will see the consumption of medicines and healthcare services slow in the short-term. Additionally, ongoing...

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Power

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BMI View: Late 2013 brought little joy to South Africa's power market. The main supplier, public utility Eskom, announced in November 2013 that the country was facing an emergency in terms of...

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Real Estate

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BMI View: We believe that the real estate sector in South Africa will remain stable throughout 2014 because of a lack of change in the supply demand dynamic and enough new projects in the...

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Renewables

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The expansion of South Africa's renewable energy sector continues unabated - a month after the third bidding round was concluded under the country's REIPPP. A total of 17 new facilities have been...

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Retail

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BMI View: South Africa's retail sector is expected to grow steadily over the next few years as its increasingly sophisticated urban population and expanding black middle class continues to spend...

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Shipping

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Growth at South African ports is threatened by the global headwinds that are posing challenges for the country as a whole, namely the China slowdown and the drying up of foreign inflows due to the...

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Telecoms

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BMI View: Competition dynamics could change significantly in South Africa's fixed-line sector owing to a number of key regulatory and industry-specific factors, including the functional...

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Tourism

BMI View:

The most recent tourist arrivals data (for January to October 2013) show that total arrivals were up by only 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 7.8mn. Consequently, BMI has decided to revise down its...

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Water

BMI View:

BMI View: We continue to view South Africa as the best of a poor bunch regionally, with regards to its water sector . Although investment is being encouraged and water infrastructure...

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