With BMI’s analysts forecasting that the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China will grow by 8% annually until 2012, the Report analyses the key economic, political and operational issues facing investors in these markets. Crucially, amid rising global risk premiums, we quantify whether foreign investors keen to exploit these new markets will leave themselves exposed to the first major Emerging Markets crisis of the 21st century.
Of course, the potential rewards are staggering. Building BRICs - Is the Rapid Rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China Sustainable? forecasts that the nominal GDP of the BRICs will virtually treble between 2006-2012 to US$15.4trn, with combined exports of US$3.6trn boosting domestic growth and creating a whole new generation of consumers. At a time when growth is slowing in Europe and the US, the BRICs are a uniquely compelling growth opportunity for companies able to penetrate these largely virgin markets.
BMI BRIC View
But what are the risks? The Report evaluates the country-specific dynamics. The economies of China and India, whose recent growth has been triggered by investment and exports of manufactured goods, are vastly different from resource-fuelled Russia and, to a lesser extent, Brazil. Consequently, any strategy to exploit the growth of the BRICs must take into account the unique risks faced in each - for example, the dangers to oil price stability for Russia, and the immaturity of financial markets and inflationary pressures for China.
CONTENTS
Introduction
- BRIC By BRIC
- TABLE: BRICs IN COTEXT (2001-2012)
[NOMINAL GDP, POPULATION, GDP PER CA PITA, INFLATION, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE BALANCE, CURRENT ACO UNT, FOREX RESERVES]
- CHART: BRICs GROWTH POTENTIAL
Chapter 1 - Political SWOT Analysis
- Brazil
- Russia
- India
- China
Chapter 2 - Political Risk
- Brazil
- Lula: A Third Mandate?
- BMI On The Ground: Brazil
- Russia
- What A Medvedev Presidency Will Mean
- India
- INC's Gujarat Loss Jeopardises Nuke Deal
- Challenge To Economic Zone Policy
- China
- Olympics Thrusts Human Rights Into The Spotlight
- Economic SWOT Analysis
- Brazil
- Russia
- India
- China
- Economic Risk
- Brazil
- Economic Activity
- TABLE: BRAZIL - ECONOMIC AC TIVITY (2005-2012)
[NOMINAL GDP, REAL GDP GROW TH, GDP PER CA PITA, POPULATION, INDUSTRIAL PRO UDCITON INDEX, UNEMPLOYMENT]
- Balance Of Payments
- TABLE: BRAZIL - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (2005-2012)
[EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE BALANCE, CURRENT ACCO UNT, FOREX RESERVES, IMPORT COVER, OPEC BASKET]
- Monetary Policy
- TABLE: BRAZIL - MONETARY POLICY (2005-2012)
[LENDING RATE, CONSUMER PRICES, EXC HANGE RATE]
- Fiscal Policy
- TABLE: BRAZIL - FISCAL POLICY (2005-2012)
[BUDGET BALANCE]
- Russia
- Economic Activity
- TABLE: RUSSIA - Economic Activity (2005-2012)
[NOMINAL GDP, REAL GDP GROW TH, GDP PER CA PITA, POPULATION, INDUSTRIAL PRO UDCITON INDEX, UNEMPLOYMENT]
- Exchange Rate
- Monetary Policy
- TABLE: RUSSIA - MONETARY POLICY (2005-2012)
[LENDING RATE, CONSUMER PRICES, EXC HANGE RATE]
- Balance Of Payments
- TABLE: RUSSIA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (2005-2012)
[EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE BALANCE, CURRENT ACCO UNT, FOREX RESERVES, IMPORT COVER, OPEC BASKET]
- India
- Economic Activity
- TABLE: INDIA - ECONOMIC AC TIVITY (2005-2012)
[NOMINAL GDP, REAL GDP GROW TH, GDP PER CA PITA, POPULATION, INDUSTRIAL PRO UDCITON INDEX]
- Monetary Policy
- TABLE: INDIA - MONETARY POLICY (2005-2012)
[LENDING RATE, CONSUMER PRICES, EXC HANGE RATE]
- Fiscal Policy
- Exchange Rate Policy
- TABLE: INDIA - Exchange Rate Policy (2005-2012)
[EXC HANGE RATE, FOREX RESERVES, IMPORT COVER]
- China
- Economic Risk
- TABLE: CHINA - ECONOMIC AC TIVITY (2005-2012)
[NOMINAL GDP, REAL GDP GROW TH, GDP PER CA PITA, POPULATION, INDUSTRIAL PRO UDCITON INDEX, UNEMPLOYMENT]
- Monetary Policy
- TABLE: CHINA - MONETARY POLICY (2005-2012)
[LENDING RATE, CONSUMER PRICES, EXCHANGE RATE]
- Balance Of Payments
- TABLE: CHINA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (2005-2012)
[EXPORTS, IMPORTS, TRADE BALANCE, CURRENT ACCO UNT, FOREX RESERVES, IMPORT COVER, OPEC BASKET]
- Demographics
- China's Population Options
Chapter 3 - Business Environment SWOT Analysis
- Brazil
- Russia
- India
- China
Chapter 4 - Business Environment
- Brazil
- Introduction
- TABLE: BMI BUSINES AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS - LATIN AMERICA
- Institutions
- TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS - LATIN AMERICA
- Infrastructure
- TABLE: BRAZIL - DEMOGRAPHIC INDICA TORS (2005)
[DEPENDENT POPULATION, AC TIVE POPULATION, YOUTH POPULATION, PENSIONABLE POPULATION]
- Market Orientation
- TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS - LATIN AMERICA
- TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
- TABLE: BRAZIL - TOP IMPORT SOURCES
- TABLE: BRAZIL, ANUAL FDI INFLOWS
- Operational Risk
- Russia
- Introduction
- TABLE: BMI BUSINES AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS - EMERGING EUROPE
- TABLE : BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS - EMERGING EUROPE
- Institutions
- Infrastructure
- TABLE: EMERGING EUROPE FDI
- TABLE: RUSSIA - DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS (2005)
[DEPENDENT POPULATION, AC TIVE POPULATION, YOUTH POPULATION, PENSIONABLE POPULATION]
- TABLE: RUSSIA - TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
- TABLE: RUSSIA FDI
- Market Outlook
- Operational Risk
- India
- Introduction
- TABLE: BMI BUSINES AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS - ASIA
- TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATINGS - ASIA
- Institutions
- TABLE: BMI BUSINES AND OPERATIONAL RISK RATINGS - ASIA
- Infrastructure
- TABLE: INDIA - DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS (2005)
[DEPENDENT POPULATION, AC TIVE POPULATION, YOUTH POPULATION, PENSIONABLE POPULATION]
- Market Orientation
- TABLE: INDIA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
- TABLE: BMI TRADE RATINGS - ASIA
- TABLE: INDIA - TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS
- Operational Risk
- China
- Introduction
- Latest Developments
- Institutions
- Infrastructure
- Market Orientation
- TABLE: CHINA DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS (2005)
[DEPENDENT POPULATION, AC TIVE POPULATION, YOUTH POPULATION, PENSIONABLE POPULATION]
- TABLE: CHINA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
- Operational Risk
Key Benefits of the Report to your business
- Identify and evaluate the scale of opportunities in these rapidly-developing states as growth in the US and developed markets falter.
- Assess the Operational, Economic and Political Risks facing companies operating in - and trading with - each state using our country-comparative risk model, at a time when rising risk aversion globally in the wake of the sub-prime crisis threatens to introduce new uncertainty into financial and economic planning.
- Benchmark your own views and forecasts for market performance and currency movements against BMI's 100% independent 5-year economic and financial forecasts, which are backed up by our analysts' clearly-articulated country, regional and global assumptions.
- Gain an insight into the current and future direction of economic and business policy which could fundamentally alter your financial exposure and profitability in these constantly-evolving states.
Why you need to order this report today:
Strategists
Gain an insight into the commercial opportunities available in Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs), using our clearly-explained medium-term economic forecasts (2008-2012) to benchmark your own growth projections and, crucially, manage currency risk. Also, gain an understanding of how the growth of these states is fundamentally altering the global economic environment - and determining the costs of input prices - for your industry.
Risk Managers
Discover the key Political, Economic and Operational risks facing companies in these rapidly developing states, and exploit BMI’s quantitatively-based risk assessment model to stress-test your own assumptions.
Country Managers
Gain an insight into the country-specific issues facing businesses starting new investment or trading links with companies originating from BRIC states and assess the strengths/weaknesses of each state on all key issues - including labour market regulation, bureaucracy and country infrastructure - against regional and global peers.
Financial Planners
Critically evaluate the assumptions underpinning your medium-term financial projections using BMI's growth projections for the future direction and value of the currency and key domestic interest rates; the principal determinant of business investment and consumer spending growth.
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