With BMI’s Country Risk analysts revising downwards their view on global growth, the Report covers the vulnerabilities of major Emerging Markets (EMs) in key areas of international finance and economics. Crucially, we evaluate whether the sovereign debt profile of major EMs leaves the governments – and national companies – vulnerable to a new external debt crisis. Equally significant, we present a country-comparative assessment of Country and Industry Risk, enabling clients to assess their level of exposure in key markets.
A New Financial Earthquake? With BMI’s Country Risk analysts concluding that Economic, Political and Sovereign Risk has substantially improved across the EM universe since the last global crisis threatened following 9/11 and the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2001, our key finding is that fears of a new EM crisis are overblown.
Or More Partial Disaster Insurance?While a repeat of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis or the 1980s Latin American debt crisis is unlikely, many large EMs – including South Africa and Turkey – continue to exhibit key weaknesses that justify rising risk premiums. Moreover, given the diversity of the EM universe – it ranges from Chad to China – our optimism is tempered. Indeed, while this is a great time to be a commodity producer, net importer or large debtors remain heavily exposed.
But where are the risks located? Using BMI’s proprietary Sovereign, Country Risk and Industry Risk ratings (on 7 key economic sectors including Autos, Food & Drink, Downstream Oil & Gas, Infrastructure, Telecoms, Pharmaceuticals and Insurance) the Report identifies which states – and which industries in each state – are vulnerable as the global cycle turns.
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CONTENTS
Chapter 1 - Surviving The Credit Crunch
- The Origins Of The Problem: The Sub-Prime Crisis
- Chart: VIX Index (%)
- Chart: Nominal Budget Balances (% of GDP)
- Chart: Months of Import Cover
- The Global Liquidity Crunch
- The US Recession
- The State Of The World
Sovereign Ratings
Chapter 2 - Latin America: On A Solid Footing
- Table: Latin Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Ability To Pay
- Table: Latin America Sovereign Ratings – Evolution Of Willingness To Pay
Chapter 3 - Europe: Opportunities In Markets Despite Subprime
- Table: Europe Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Ability To Pay
- Table: Europe Sovereign Ratings – Evolution Of Willingness To Pay
Chapter 4 - Sub-Saharan Africa: From Debt Hell To Debt Heaven
- Table: Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Ability To Pay
- Table: Africa Sovereign Ratings – Evolution Of Willingness To Pay
Chapter 5 - Middle East: Ratings Robust Despite Adverse Global Conditions
- Middle East and North Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Ability To Pay
- Middle East and North Africa Sovereign Ratings – Evolution Of Willingness To Pay
Chapter 6 - Asia - Downside Risks And Intra-Region Divergence
- Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Ability To Pay
- Asia Sovereign Ratings - Evolution Of Willingness To Pay
Country Risk Ratings
Chapter 7 - Surviving The Credit Crunch
- Economic Ratings: Key Strengths
- Table: Lat Am: Major EM States
- Table: Emerging Europe: Major EM States
- Underlying Weaknesses
- Table: MEA: Major EM Statess
- Table: Asia: Major EM States
- Table: Lat Am: Major EM States
- Table: Emerging Europe: Major EM States
- The Ones To Watch
- Table: MEA: Major EM States
- Table: Asia: Major EM States
- Political Ratings: Strong Profile
- Table: States of Concern
- Table: States of Concern
- Risks Limited…For Now
Chapter 8 - Industry Exposure To The Credit Crunch
- Overview
- Ratings Overview
- Autos
- Energy Refining & Product Distribution
- Table: Downstream O&G Risk/Rating
- Food & Drink
- Table: Food and Drink Risk/Rating
- Infrastructure
- Table: Infrastructure Risk/Rating
- Pharmaceuticals
- Table: Pharmaceuticals Risk/Rating
- Telecoms
- Table: Telecoms Risk/Rating
- Insurance
- Table: Insurance Risk/Rating
Chapter 9 - Conclusion
Appendix
- Sovereign Risk Ratings Methodology
- Sovereign Risk Ratings
- Country Risk Ratings
- Long Term Political Ratings
- Short Term Political Ratings
- Long Term Economic Rating
- Short-Term Economic Rating
- Business Environment Rating
Key Benefits of the Report
- Identify and evaluate the scale of risks facing companies with foreign debt exposure operating in EM states as growth in the US and developed markets falter.
- Assess the Economic and Political Risks facing companies operating in – and trading with – each state using our country-comparative risk model. Is it different this time?
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Benchmark your own industry’s risk profile across up to 50 EM states as your market-specific vulnerability to the crisis evolves.
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Gain an understanding of how the credit crisis has evolved and how its impact will spread globally.
Why you need to order this report today
Strategists
Evaluate which states – and which markets within specific industries – are exposed to the credit crisis, enabling you to manage your company’s exposure and, potentially, maintain growth momentum despite the deteriorating global environment.
Risk Managers
Gain an insight into the commercial risks facing your business in EMs in the wake of the credit crisis, using our clearly-explained Country, Sovereign and Industry Ratings to benchmark your own risk assessments.
Country Managers
Gain an insight into the country-specific issues facing businesses considering new investment or strengthening trading links with companies originating from EM states and assess the strengths/weaknesses of each market against regional and global peers.
Financial Planners
Critically evaluate the assumptions underpinning your medium-term financial projections. |
