At a time when BMI’s grocery retail analysts are forecasting growth of over 50% in the Middle East’s mass grocery retail sector to 2012, BMI presents a new report; An Exciting Prospect: Convenience Retail in the Middle East. With our analysts anticipating that the convenience retail sector will take a growing share of this burgeoning modern industry, highlighting the importance of early market access, we assess:

Key industry trends and growth dynamics for eight regional markets, including BMI’s independent 5-year industry forecasts to end-2012.
Key market-specific population demographics and their impact on mass grocery retail and convenience retail sales growth.
The competitive landscape via our detailed key players tables, listing the in-country operations of leading mass grocery retailers.

The potential is impressive: With the Middle East’s unique grocery retail markets having been largely ignored in favour of emerging European and Asian growth opportunities, local and multinational penetration is currently minimal.

But growth potential is not uniform across the region: Income growth does not necessarily translate to strong sales growth in the typically time-poor, cash-rich convenience sector, as Saudi Arabia’s disappointing convenience store sales growth forecast of just 20.2% to 2012 testifies to.

Furthermore, there are risks: We support the view that sustained economic development – fuelled in part by high oil prices – coupled with increasingly Western influences, will support convenience store sales growth. Nonetheless, we caution that a strong traditional sector and food price inflation volatility remain very real medium-term investment risks.

Key Benefits of the Report

Identify and evaluate the scale of growth opportunities across eight key regional markets – including small and little understood markets
Identify competitors and peers in each market using BMI’s mass grocery retail key players tables – detailing sales, network size and operational formats – for eight regional markets
Benchmark your own views and forecasts for market performance against BMI’s independent 5-year industry forecasts for convenience retail sales and broader mass grocery retail sales growth
Use BMI’s macroeconomic and demographic market forecasts, all closely industry applied, to assess the key factors impacting market size and the scope of retail opportunity in the eight regional markets covered

We believe this Report is required reading for the following senior executives in your business:

Strategists – Gain an insight into the commercial opportunities available in the Middle East’s convenience and mass grocery retail markets using our clearly-explained medium-term industry and economic forecasts (2008-2012).
Risk Managers – Discover operational risks and the exact scope of the opportunity facing companies in these rapidly developing states.
Country Managers - Gain an insight into country-specific growth trajectories: the key factors driving and inhibiting growth and the major risks to realising this growth.
Financial Planners – Critically evaluate the assumptions underpinning your medium-term financial projections using BMI’s growth projections for real GDP, per capita GDP and population growth; key determinants of consumer spending growth and investment potential.

Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats

Executive Summary

The Middle East region has attracted a number of major international mass grocery retail (MGR) operators in recent years, driving impressive growth in this sector. These retailers have been drawn to the region for its young and growing population, and vast oil wealth, which has resulted in increasing disposable incomes and new range of emerging consumer opportunities. One such opportunity is the emergence of the convenience store format, which is now poised for considerable success in the Middle East, and the Gulf states in particular.

Overview

Table: Convenience stores (US$bn) by Market

Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

Table: Food Consumption (US$mn) in Selected Middle East Markets –
Historical Data & Forecasts

Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey

Table: Total Mass Grocery Retail Sales & Convenience Retail as % of Total in Selected Middle East Markets - Historical Data & Forecasts

United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Turkey

Table: Urban : Rural Population Demographics in Selected Middle East Markets

Egypt, Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Turkey

Table: Population Demographics by Age for Selected Middle East Markets

Egypt, Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Turkey

Key Players

Key Players In The Mass Grocery Retail Industry In Selected Middle East Markets

Table: Bahrain - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Table: Egypt - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Table: Israel - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Table: Kuwait - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Table: Lebanon - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Table: Saudi Arabia - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Table: Turkey - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Table: UAE - Key MGR Players

Parent Company, Country of Origin, Sales, Operating Fascias, Operating Formats, Outlets, Established

Economic Outlook

Bahrain

Table: Bahrain's Economic Activity

Egypt

Table: Egypt Microeconomic Data & Forecasts

Israel

Table: Israel's Economic Activity

Kuwait

Table: Kuwait's Economic Activity

Lebanon

Table: Lebanon's Economic Activity

Saudi Arabia

Table: Saudi Arabia's Economic Activity

Turkey

Table: Turkey's Economic Activity

United Arab Emirates

Table: United Arab Emirates Economic Activity

BMI's Affiliates and Partners in the Middle East and Africa

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