Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and North Korea

Investment opportunities in Asia's frontier markets (Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and North Korea) are proliferating, but remain distinctly less well understood, whereas in China and India, the engine rooms of global growth, opportunities are starting to diminish as incumbents - both domestic and international - entrench their market share. Against this backdrop, BMI's clients are reassessing their Asia growth strategies, whether based on organic expansion or acquisition. The Business Outlook for Asia's Frontier Markets 2008 argues that, as your competitors gear up to the new era, it is imperative to start focussing now on the opportunities (and risks) in other high growth markets where the competitive environment is less challenging.

The Business Outlook for Asia's Frontier Markets 2008 provides essential risk analysis and market forecasts for these high growth 'Frontier Markets'. It highlights the opportunities available for investors looking to exploit the domestic market, where growth rates will remain well in excess of developed states. Furthermore, with price pressures hitting the competitiveness of traditional export-oriented economies, the Report provides the information you will need to assess how the rapid development of these states - and their close proximity to 'Chindia' - will facilitate your company's offshoring strategy. There may never be 'another China', but combined, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and North Korea offer strong opportunities for companies keen to sharpen their competitive edge at a time of rising global risks.

Why Frontier Markets?

  • Strong macroeconomic growth - which translates into high earnings potential for domestic companies and investors
  • Rapid economic development - will means huge opportunities for capital investment across all sectors servicing local economy - utilities, communications, transport, industry
  • Diversification hedge - these states offer unique opportunities to exploit opportunities in states where growth dynamics do not correlate with more established states
  • 'Last decade costs' - low labour costs in contrast to more developed states will confer competitive advantage to those able to unlock the potential

Why you need to order this report today:

Strategists - Scope out the commercial opportunities available within Asia's smaller markets, and, more importantly, the synergies available to your company's core Asia strategy via diversification, cost reduction and new market acquisition. Risk Managers - Develop a broader understanding of the risk/reward trade-off for both your existing business model and more innovative growth strategies via a more holistic view of the Asian market.

New Business Managers - Assess the relevance of your current portfolio of products/services for these rapidly-growing markets where those that offer greater differentiation stand to benefit most.

Financial Planners - Critically evaluate the assumptions underpinning your medium-term financial forecasts by incorporating BMI's economic assumptions of Frontier Asian States into your projections.

Extracts from The Business Outlook for Asia's Frontier Markets 2008

Diversification benefits
While the performance of Frontier Markets is linked to the global economy, organic growth drivers – especially within commodity producing states – are more significant. The result is that while there are country-specific risks, investment and trade with these states offers a hedging strategy against falling performance elsewhere.

The China effect
Not only are the specific growth dynamics of each state important when considering the potential rewards on offer, many Frontier Markets in Asia – especially Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia – will reap significant rewards from the growth of their larger neighbour. Indeed, while the competition for resources is often viewed as a global phenomenon, the ‘quick wins’ for resource hungry states such as China and India, are the exploitation of resources in their back-yard. This provides a long-term stimulus to the Frontier Markets in the region.

Policy risks remain
While the rewards are significant, so are the risks. Double-digit – or high single-digit – growth is driving inflation, which the governments of many frontier markets are ill-equipped to handle. Vietnam especially is struggling to balance stellar growth and higher prices and, with less extensive foreign reserve positions, Frontier Markets carry a higher level of currency risk than other, more developed, states.

Infrastructure bottlenecks constrain even greater potential
While rapid growth is the hallmark of many Frontier States, we believe that the growth potential of many has yet to be fully realised. For example, growth in Bangladesh could exceed its current trend rate of 6% if – or rather when – liberalisation is increased and infrastructure bottlenecks are relieved.

CONTENTS

Growing Fast On The New Frontier

    • Chart: Frontier Markets To Lead The Growth Race
      Top 20 Countries Projected Real GDP Growth From 2008-2012,%
    • Table: Frontier Markets - key data and projections for top 10 countries
    • Table: GDP per capita, US$ (in order of % increase)

Frontier Investment: Potential And Pitfalls

  • Diversification Benefits
    • Table: Diversify through Frontier Markets - correlation coefficients Jan 2004 - April 2008
  • Index Development A Positive Step
  • Official Agencies Playing A Part
    • Table: Frontier Market Indices

Asia’s Frontier Markets: Hidden Dragons

  • Sources Of Opportunities
  • Sources Of Weakness
  • Cambodia - Diversification Key As Pressure Is Put On Garment Sector
    • Chart: Domestic Demand Dominates
      Contribution To Real GDP Growth (pps)
    • Chart: The Rise Of Industry
      GDP Growth By Sector (%)
    • Table: seats won by position and party
  • Laos - Neighbours Fuel Economic Growth
    • Chart: Growth Accelerating
      Laos - Annual GDP Growth (% chg)
    • Chart: Imports Outpacing Exports
      Laos - Merchandise Trade (US$mn)
    • Chart: Ties That Bind
      Laos - Destination of Exports in 2006 (%)
    • Chart: Inflation Rising But Under Control
      Laos - Consumer Price Inflation, annual average (%)
  • Vietnam - What’s Going On The Economy?
    • Chart: Brief Slowdown Expected
      Vietnam–Annual Real GDP Growth (%)
    • Chart: Export Growth To US To Slow In 2008
      Vietnam–Exports to the US (US$bn)
    • Chart: Out Of Control
      Vietnam–Consumer Price Inflation (monthly y-o-y % chg)
    • Chart: Conflicting Policies Increases Uncertainty
      Vietnam–Exchange Rate, VND/US$
    • Chart: Fiscal Spending To Remain Expansionary
      Vietnam–Government Expenditure (VNDbn)
    • Table: vietnam - economic activity
  • Sri Lanka - Long-Term Potential On Hold
    • Chart: Could Do Better
      Sri Lanka–Real GDP Growth (%)
    • Chart: Services Are A Key Driver
      Sri Lanka–GDP By Sector (%), 2006
    • Chart: Tourists Scared Away
      Sri Lanka–Total Tourist Arrivals
    • Chart: Lanka Keen To Narrow The Gap
      India–Trade With Sri Lanka (US$mn)
    • Table: Sri lanka - macroeconomic forecasts
  • Bangladesh - Great Potential, Great Obstacles
    • Table: bangladesh - macroeconomic forecasts
    • Chart: An Expanding Market
      Bangladesh–Pop’n In 2000 And 2050
    • Chart: A History Of Violence
      National Assembly After October 2001 Election (No of seats)
  • North Korea - The Foreign Investment Challenge
    • Chart: West Coast Is South’s Main Focus
      Korean Peninsula
    • Table: North Korea - Estimated commodity production (metric tons)
    • Chart: Not Necessarily On Everyone’s Radars
      North Korea–Debt Certificates

BMI's Affiliates and Partners in Asia

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