The Report provides newly researched analysis highlighting the potential for mobile broadband internet subscriber growth in Africa, critically evaluating WiMax's potential against other technologies such as HSPA. The Report draws out the full potential of mobile broadband by contextualising our forecasts against country-by-country projections for wireless subscribers (2007-2012) in over 20 African states. The value of this strategic intelligence is further enhanced by current operator data on subscriber numbers and market share in each mobile market.

The Report covers Algeria, Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda.

The Report's principal conclusion is that the market for mobile broadband in Africa will exceed 70mn by 2012, with user numbers tripling annually over this period. Given the potential it will be vital for operators to focus resources. The principal markets – South Africa and Nigeria – are well-known, but we believe that participation in Kenya, Ghana and DR Congo - the others likely to make the top-5 in 2012 – will be key to success.

WiMax in Africa: the Next Billion Users features BMI's independent 5-year industry forecasts for mobile subscriber numbers for 20 African markets to end-2012. Crucially, our medium term market views are supported by our unique Business Environment Rating – a numerically-based risk-reward evaluation of the competitiveness of the regulatory and business operating environment for each of the 20 telecoms markets, a vital tool for benchmarking both the rewards available in each state and the risks of market entry.

Rapid market expansion WILL occur. Conservatively, we estimate that WiMAX subscriber numbers in Africa will grow from 180,000 in 2008 to 11mn by 2012, accounting for 15% of the wireless broadband market. Furthermore, roll out of all wireless mobile technology will result in coverage for over 50% of the continent's population.

But WiMAX faces strong challengers. HPSA, which runs on existing 3G networks, has a strong early-mover advantage, especially in the key South African market. WiMAX's ability to erode HPSA's market share beyond our projections will depend on its operators' ability to stimulate demand for its superior headline data rates before LTE (next generation HSPA technology) comes online.

Furthermore, the regulatory environment is key. Critical to operator profitability over the five-year forecast period will be the licensing policy in each state, with hopes building that other countries will follow South Africa's decision to levy spectrum fees only. Equally importantly, companies will have to deploy significant efforts to demonstrate the technology's economic importance, following the experience in many African states where mobiles are taxed as luxury items.

Key Benefits of the Report

Identify and evaluate the scale of growth opportunities across 20 African mobile markets – including small, growing and little understood markets

Benchmark competitors and peers in each state using recently researched company subscriber and market share data

Benchmark your own views and forecasts for market performance against BMI's independent 5-year industry forecasts for wireless broadband access and mobile subscriber numbers

Use BMI's country-comparative business environment ratings to assess the operating risks, opportunities and key factors impacting corporate profitability in each of the 20 markets covered

Executives who will benefit most from this Report:

Strategists – Gain an insight into the commercial opportunities available in Africa's wireless broadband market, using our clearly-explained medium-term forecasts for mobile subscriber growth (2008-2012) to benchmark your own growth projections.

Risk Managers – Discover the key Industry, Political, Economic and Operational risks facing companies in these rapidly developing states, and exploit BMI's quantitatively-based risk assessment model to stress-test your own assumptions.

Country Managers – Gain an insight into the country-specific growth trajectories of the African subscriber market and the key strengths of your clients and competitors.

Financial Planners – Critically evaluate the assumptions underpinning your medium-term financial projections using BMI's growth projections for wireless broadband and mobile telecoms.

Opportunities For Mobile Broadband & Wireless Broadband Access In Africa

Table: Wireless broadband access growth by country (users)
Period 2008-2012, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Congo DR, rest, total

Table: Wireless broadband access growth by technology (users)
Period 2008-2012, hspa, wimax, proprietary bwa, satellite, lte, total

Case study 1
Case study 2

Table: MTN subscribers numbers
Period Jun 07-Sep 07, SEA: South Africa, Uganda, Mascom-Botswana, Rwanda, Swaziland, Zambia,
Sub Total, Weca: Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Benin, Congo-Brazzaville, Conakry, Liberia,
Bissau, Sub Total, Mena: Syria, Iran, Yemen, Sudan, Afghanistan, Cyprus, Sub Total, grand total

Mobile Market Data Analysis

North Africa

Table: Algeria Mobile Market Q307
Operator: Djezzy, Mobilis, Nedjma, total
Table: Algeria Mobile ARPUs Q106 – Q207 (US$/user/month)
Operator: Nedjma, Djezzy
T able: Morocco Mobile Market Q307
Operator: Maroc Telecom, Meditel, total
Table: Tunisia Mobile Market Q307
Operator: Tunisie Telecom, Tunisiana, total

West & Central Africa

Table: Cameroon Mobile Market Q207
Operator: MTN, Orange, total
Table: Cote d’Ivoire Mobile Market Q207
Operator: MTN, Orange, Moov, total
Table: Gabon Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Celtel, Libertis, Moov Gabon, total
Table: Ghana Mobile Market Q207
Operator: MTN, Tigo, Onetouch, Kasapa, total
Table: Mali Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Ikatel, Sotelma, total

East & Southern Africa

Table: Mauritania Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Mauritel Mobiles, Mattel, total
Table: Senegal Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Orange, Tigo, total
Table: Mobile Subscribers/100 Inhabitants 2000-06
Period 2000-2006, Angola, Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda
Table: Angola Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Unitel, Movicel, total
Table: Botswswana Mobile Market Q307
Operator: Mascom, Orange, total
Table: Kenya Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Safaricom, Celtel Kenya, total
Table: Mauritius Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Cellplus, Emtel, total
Table: Mozambique Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Mcel, Vodacom, total
Table: Sudan Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Mobitel, MTN, Sudani, Canar, total
Table: Tanzania Mobile Market Q207
Operator: Vodacom, Celtel, Tigo, Zantel, total
Table: Uganda Mobile Market Q207
Operator: MTN Uganda, Celtel Uganda, Utl Telecom

South Africa

Table: South Africa Wireless Market September 2007
Operator: Vodacom, MTN, Cell C, Virgin Mobile, total
Table: Vodacom*
Period Mar 05-Jun 07, subscriber numbers (mn): total number, type (prepaid), type (postpaid), tech (GSM 2G), tech (w-cdma 3G), market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net additions (’000),
market share of net additions (%), subscriber usage: minutes of total use (bn), blended arpu (zar), arpu (prepaid, zar), arpu (contract, zar), non-voice revenues (zarmn), financial/structure: revenue (zarmn), operating profit (zarmn), ebitda (zarmn), ebitda margin (%), capital expenditure (zarmn),
capital expenditure as % revenue, capital expenditure/subscriber (zar)
Table: Cell C
Subscriber numbers (mn): total number, market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net
additions (‘000), market share of net additions (%)
Table: Virgin Mobile
Subscriber numbers (mn): total number, market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net
additions (‘000), market share of net additions (%)
Table: MTN*
Period Mar 05-Jun 07, subscriber numbers (mn): total number, type (prepaid), type (postpaid),
market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net additions (’000), market share of net additions (%), subscriber usage: minutes of use/subscriber, blended arpu (zar), arpu (prepaid, zar), arpu (contract, zar), non-voice revenues (zarmn), % of non-voice service revenues, financial/structure: revenue (zarmn), profit after tax (zarmn), ebitda (zarmn), capital expenditure (zarmn), capital
expenditure as % revenue

Nigeria

Table: Nigeria Mobile Market (Q307)
Operator: MTN, Globacom, Celtel, M-tel, total
Table: MTN
Period Mar 05-Jun 07, subscriber numbers (mn): total number, type (prepaid), type (postpaid), tech (GSM 2G), tech (w-cdma 3G), market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net additions (’000),
market share of net additions (%), subscriber usage: minutes of total use (bn), blended arpu (US$), financial/structure: revenue (zarmn), net profit (zarmn), ebitda (zarmn), ebitda margin (%)
Table: Celtel*
(GSM 2G), tech (w-cdma 3G), market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net additions (’000),
market share of net additions (%), subscriber usage: blended arpu (US$), financial/structure:
revenue (US$mn), net profit (US$mn), ebitda (US$mn), ebitda margin (%), capital expenditure (US$mn)
Table: Globacom
Period Mar 05-Jun 07, subscriber numbers (mn): total number, tech (GSM 2G), tech (w-cdma 3G),
market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net additions, market share of net additions (%)
Table: M-Tel
Period Mar 05-Jun 07, subscriber numbers (mn): total number, tech (GSM 2G), tech (w-cdma 3G),
market share (%), market penetration (%), no of net additions

Mobile Forecasts

North Africa

Table: North Africa Telecoms Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts
Period 2005-2012, Algeria: cellular mobile phone subscribers (mn), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Morocco: cellular mobile phone subscribers (mn), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Tunisia: cellular mobile phone subscribers (mn), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants

West & Central Africa

Table: West & Central Africa mobile Sector–Historical Data & Forecasts
Period 2005-2012, Cameroon: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Cote d’Ivoire: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Gabon: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Ghana: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Mali: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Mauritania: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Senegal: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/ 100 inhabitants

East & Southern Africa

Table: East & Southern Africa Mobile Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
Period 2005-2012, Angola: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Botswana: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Kenya: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Mauritius: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Mozambique: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Sudan: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Tanzania: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants, Uganda: cellular mobile phone subscribers (‘000), mobile phone subscribers/
100 inhabitants

South Africa

Table: South Africa Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
Period 2005-2012, no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers, no of 3G phone
subscribers (‘000), 3G market as % of entire mobile market

Nigeria

Table: Nigeria Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
Period 2004-2012, no of mobile phone subscribers (‘000), no of mobile phone subscribers/100
inhabitants, no of mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers, no of 3G phone
subscribers (‘000), 3G market as % of entire mobile market

Internet Market Data Analysis

North Africa
East & Southern Africa
South Africa

Table: South Africa – Telkom Internet Customers (‘000)
Period Mar 06-Sep 07, internet subscribers, ADSL subscribers, managed data sites

Nigeria

Table: Nigeria Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Period 2004-2012, no of internet users (‘000), no of internet users/100 inhabitants, no of
broadband internet subscribers (‘000), no of broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants

Business Environment Ratings

Table: Africa Business Environmironment Rankings
Country: Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Botswana, Gabon, Sudan, Ghana, Algeria,
Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mali, Tunisia, Kenya,
Angola, Mozambique

Glossary Of Terms

BMI's Affiliates and Partners in the Middle East and Africa

[TOP]

Read about our other WiMAX Special Reports

Asia

Business Monitor International
A Market Leader in Country Risk, Industry Intelligence and Company Research

Mermaid House, 2 Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London EC4V 3DS, UK

BUSINESS MONITOR INTERNATIONAL's country risk analysis and forecasts, market research on leading industries, and multinational company research is relied upon by corporates, banks, government departments and multilateral organisations in over 125 countries around the world.

Country Risk Analysis and Forecasts
BMI has for 24 years specialised in political risk analysis, financial markets analysis, and macroeconomic forecasts on 175 global markets.

Industry Intelligence and Market Research
BMI's industry research covers Automotives; Banking; Chemicals; Defence & Security; Food & Drink; Freight Transport; Information Technology; Infrastructure; Insurance; Mining; Oil & Gas; Petrochemicals; Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Power; Telecommunications, and Tourism.

Company Research
BMI maintains a fully-researched 55,000-site database of multinational company subsidiaries located across global markets.