Our comprehensive assessment of Syria's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Syria, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Syria's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Syria before your competitors.
Syria Country Risk
The ongoing civil war in Syria is having severe repercussions on the Lebanese economy. Lebanon's medium-term growth trajectory will settle well below pre-crisis levels due to a lack of investment in transportation and energy infrastructure.
Despite renewed fears over the economy's gaping external asymmetries, a loyal depositor base in the domestic banking sector, combined with a massive arsenal of foreign exchange reserves, should help bolster underlying stability through what will turn out as a prolonged period of political volatility. This will minimize the potential for an unexpected devaluation of the pound in 2015.
Major Forecast Revisions
We forecast real GDP in Lebanon to expand by 2.6% in 2015, from our previous forecast of 2.4%. That said, elevated political...
Syria Industry Coverage (2)
Heightened risk from the situation in Syria, coupled with a weak economic outlook, will continue to dampen autos demand in the Levant region over the course of 2015. Of the three countries covered in this report, we believe that it is Jordan that has the strongest near-term growth potential, where we are targeting 6.7% growth in new vehicle sales over 2015, to 18,855 units. However, Lebanon will remain the largest regional market overall, on 42,823 units, up by 4.1% during 2015.
Backing up our optimistic outlook on the evolution of new vehicle sales in Jordan is our Country Risk team's belief that economic activity will strengthen from 2015 onward, due to robust public investment and gradual improvements in domestic demand. BMI forecasts real GDP growth to stand at 2.9% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015, compared to an annual average of just 2.6% between 2010 and 2013.
In particular, we expect construction activity and the...
Defence & Security
Syria Defence & Security
Information regarding the size of Syria's annual defence budget is difficult to locate, since the country erupted into civil war in 2011. It is, however, possible to provide an accurate estimate of the size of the country's annual defence budget. For example, in 2014, we expect Syria's defence budget to reach USD3bn. For the remainder of the forecast period, up to and including 2018, we expect Syria to spend an average of USD4.9bn on defence. We predict Syria's defence spending to reach USD5.7bn by 2018.
Estimating the current size of Syria's armed forces is almost impossible given the civil war in which the country is in the grip of. This conflict has seen the country's armed forces pitted against a significant number of rebel organisations. Accurate figures regarding the current size of the armed forces are almost impossible to produce, given that the armed forces have suffered significant casualties during the hostilities, and also because...