BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

Demonstrating the full potential for growth in Bangladesh's telecoms market, Warid Telecom, which only launched its mobile network commercially in April 2007, was able to boast 1.75mn subscribers within its first six months of operation. Its success is not altogether surprising for two reasons. First, the operator can point to similar successes in Pakistan, where it launched services only in April 2005, and already has approximately 12mn subscribers. And second, Bangladesh's mobile market remains poorly penetrated and with all the country's operators offering low tariffs and investing heavily in their network infrastructure, mobile subscriber growth continues to be rapid – BMI expects a total of 14mn net additions by the end of 2007, accounting for 65% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. Warid will need to learn its lessons from Pakistan, where it has fallen a little behind Telenor, which entered Pakistan at the same time, but whilst Warid let its investment drop, Telenor continued to build up its network and capacity. The Norwegian operator meanwhile, through its 62% stake in Grameenphone, continues to dominate Bangladesh's mobile market with just over 15mn subscribers, but its market share has dropped to just below 50%.

BMI still views Bangladesh as a fast-growing market with huge potential for growth – our long-term forecasts suggest that by the end of 2012 there will be over 120mn mobile subscribers and that penetration will rise from the current 20-25% to 80%. However, we do have to be a little cautious. With the government ruling that all mobile subscribers need to register handsets (to alleviate security concerns), the country's mobile owners are concerned that many will not have the necessary documentation to register their ownership, while others will not have the inclination so to do.

There have been changes in Bangladesh's fixed-line market, with incumbent operator Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board (BTTB) losing its monopoly in capital city, Dhaka. But it is the auction for the award of three international voice gateway exchanges that is causing more interest, as once these licences have been awarded, local exchanges will be connected to the international gateways allowing network providers to offer VoIP services. This will help offset BTTB's declining revenue, which continues to fall at the same rate as the downturn in fixed-line traffic.

The emergence of VoIP telephony in Bangladesh is interesting as it could help the country become part of the world's growing outsourcing market with Bangladesh possibly capable of snatching a 10% share of this growing market as long as its ICT market remains progressive, and as long as it can avoid becoming too unstable, either politically or economically.

Like other south Asian states, India and Pakistan, the telecoms market in Bangladesh is hugely important to the country's economic growth, and so the regulator will want to ensure that it continues to encourage competition and inward investment.

Competitive Landscape for Asia Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of Asian Telecommunications Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Asian Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: