BMI's Executive Summary

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While BMI retains its view that mobile, and GSM in particular, will remain the largest growth area in the African telecoms market for the foreseeable future, East and Southern Africa is seeing increasing levels of investment in the broadband market. WiMAX wireless broadband technology is attracting considerable interest, with service rollout already underway in Uganda and Mozambique to name just two examples. Meanwhile, a number of undersea fibre-optic cables are currently under construction that will finally link the region to the world's backbone infrastructure. This report contains a special focus on this area of investment and its implications for the region's business environment, given that it should dramatically cut the cost of broadband and international calling services. However, we also examine the potential dangers to planned investment, as operators and national governments dispute the ownership and operating model of the various planned cables.

Our bullish view on the mobile market's growth prospects remains in place, supported by robust growth rates across the board in the first half of 2007. This growth is not restricted to the least developed markets, such as Angola. Indeed, the number of mobile subscribers in Botswana shot up by more than 20% in the first half of 2007, despite the fact that penetration was nearly at 60% by year-end 2007. As a result, we have had to raise our forecasts for that country and we now project that Botswana could be the first in our report to see penetration exceed 100%. Customer data provided by the country's two operators may well include a significant number of inactive subscribers, but nonetheless, Botswana is a shining example of what can be achieved in Africa given the right combination of economic stability and good governance.

Improvements are being made in other countries. In Kenya, for example, the government's dominance over the telecoms sector is being dismantled through the forthcoming privatisation of fixed-line incumbent Telkom and the IPO of its mobile subsidiary Safaricom. The two deals have both been subject to some delays and will both miss their end-2007 deadlines but nonetheless, the huge investor interest that they are garnering from operators around the world is testament to the growth opportunities available in the Kenyan market. Furthermore, the government has finally ended its legal disputes with third mobile licensee Econet, meaning that the latter should be in a position to launch commercial services in 2008.

New entrants are also gearing up to enter the Ugandan market. At the time of writing, two new licensees – HITS Telecom and Warid – were both rushing to roll out their networks in a bid to get their services up and running by the end of 2007.

Contents

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Executive Summary

Chapter - Market Overview

Table: East & Southern Africa Telecoms Regulators

Angola

Botswana

Kenya

Mauritius

Mozambique

Sudan

Tanzania

Uganda

Chapter - Business Environment

Table: Africa Business Environment Ranking

Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: East & Southern Africa Telecoms Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Angola

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Angola

Botswana

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Botswana

Kenya

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Kenya

Mauritius

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Mauritius

Mozambique

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Mozambique

Sudan

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Sudan

Tanzania

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Tanzania

Uganda

Table: East & Southern Africa Macroeconomic Data & Forecasts – Uganda

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players: East & Southern Africa Telecoms Sector

Fixed-Line

Table: Fixed-Lines In Service/100 Inhabitants 2000-05

Internet

Mobile

Table: Mobile Subscribers/100 Inhabitants 2000-05

Angola

Table: Angola Mobile Market Q207

Botswana

Table: Botswana Mobile Market Q107

Kenya

Table: Kenya Fixed-Line Market 1998-2006

Table: Kenya Mobile Market Q207

Mauritius

Table: Mauritius Mobile Market Q207

Mozambique

Table: Mozambique Mobile Market Q207

Sudan

Table: Sudan Mobile Market 2006

Tanzania

Tanzania Fixed-Line Growth 1995-2006

Table: Tanzania Mobile Market Q207

Uganda

Table: Uganda Fixed Lines In Service ('000)

Table: Uganda Mobile Market Q107

Chapter - Company Profiles

Regional Profile: MTN Emerges As Pan-African Giant

Table: MTN: Financial Results By Region, 2006 (ZAR mn)

South Africa Remains Key

Expansion Strategy

Celtel: Bringing Down Borders

Table: MTC Financial Results

Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of Middle Eastern and African Telecommunications Sources

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BMI's Middle Eastern and African Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: