BMI's Executive Summary

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Until recently, Oman's telecoms industry was a monopoly controlled exclusively by Omantel. However, as the government has started to release control of the operator – it currently owns 70% of the incumbent carrier – so too has the telecoms regulator started to liberalise the market. At the beginning of 2005, Oman's second national mobile operator Nawras launched its services commercially, creating a vibrant and competitive market place. And as a result, BMI forecasts that mobile penetration will reach 90% by the end of this year and that the introduction of value-added mobile services should ensure that subscriber growth will continue so that by the end of our forecast period, penetration could be around the 110% mark.

However, until now Oman's fixed-line and internet markets have remained very much in the hands of Omantel. The regulator has confirmed its plan to introduce competition in the ISP market, and BMI is particularly excited at this prospect as we see huge potential for growth here, especially within the highspeed DSL market. Our forecasts suggest that the number of broadband customers could grow by approximately 80% y-o-y to 25,000 by end-2007, and from there could escalate to such an extent that average annual growth will reach 185% until the end of 2011, when there could be as many as 210,000 DSL subscribers. We are less confident that competition in Oman's fixed-line telephony market will make too much difference, but the introduction of a SNO, as is being discussed by the regulator, could not fail to create a more competitive market.

Whilst Oman's regulator is working hard to liberalise the Sultanate's telecoms market, the government could be about to sell a further 19% in the incumbent operator to a long-term investor. Such a sale would be interesting for two reasons. First, it would reduce the state's control of the telecoms market even further, so that it just retained a 51% controlling interest. Second, there is much speculation that UAEbased Etisalat could be the long-term investor in question, as part of its regional expansion programme. If so, it is likely that Omantel would receive extra investment, not least in making the operator itself a regional player. It has already acquired a controlling stake in Pakistani WLL operator Worldcall (shareholder approval is still required from the Pakistani company), and it is possible that it could be interested in licences in neighbouring states Qatar and Kuwait.

However, it could be that it is the potential of the domestic broadband market that is the biggest pull for Etisalat in the end.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Business Environment Rankings

Middle East & Africa

Oman

Oman Telecommunications Sector – SWOT

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Fixed-Line

Table: Oman Telecoms Sector – Fixed-line – Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table: Oman Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts

Mobile

Table: Oman Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Macroeconomic Climate

Oil Revenues Will Slide After Record Year

Table: Oman: Macroeconomic Data And Forecasts

Chapter 5 - Country Snapshot: Oman Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players: Oman Telecoms Sector

Table: Omantel Financial Indicators

Key Players

Fixed-Line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview

Internet

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview

Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Market Data Analysis

Fixed-Line

Internet

Mobile

Table: Oman Mobile Subscribers – September 2006

Table: Oman Mobile Net Additions Market

3G

Industry Developments

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles

Regional Case Study – Huawei Technologies

Huawei Technologies – Contract Sales (US$bn)

Major Contract Wins For Huawei Technologies in MEA

Operators

Oman Telecommunications Company (Omantel)

Nawras Telecom

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Chapter 9 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

The Long View: Data Over The Economic Cycle (2000-2007)

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of Middle Eastern and African Telecommunications Sources

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BMI's Middle Eastern and African Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: