BMI's Executive Summary

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The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Telecomunications Sector of Poland

P4, Poland's latest mobile operator to launch commercially, can be said to have had at best a steady start attracting 172,000 subscribers by the end of June 2007. This means that in three months it has picked up a 0.4% market share. Now compare this with Slovakia's Telefónica O2, which three months into its commercial service had a 7% share of Slovakia's saturated mobile market. The key difference to Poland's and Slovakia's mobile markets lies in the extent of competition. Whilst Telefónica O2 was only the third operator to enter Slovakia, Poland already had three very well-established mobile operators, and P4 is about to face even more competition from CenterNet, which has just become Poland's fifth mobile operator, and is due to launch its services in the first quarter of 2008. Furthermore, the regulator is keen that a sixth mobile national operator takes the second frequency that CenterNet actually rejected. And with several MVNOs also in the picture, Poland's mobile market is almost certainly the most competitive in the region.

With fewer than 900,000 net additions in the last three months, Poland's mobile market is facing a slowdown. This means there were just 2mn new mobile subscribers in the first six months of the year, as compared to more than 3.2mn during the first half of 2006. Mobile penetration is now over 100%, and BMI estimates that teledensity could exceed 120% by the end of 2011.

Fixed-line traffic is still in decline, affected by mobile substitution and competition from emerging technologies, such as VoIP, high-speed internet access and WiMAX. The data transmission market is the fastest growing segment of Poland's telecommunications market, and BMI projects the broadband market will thrive over the coming five years, with the number of broadband subscribers set to double from 2.5mn at the end of 2006 to just over 5mn at the end of 2011. Aside from increased competition from alternative operators including Dialog and Netia, we note the increasing significance of cable operators, such as UPC and Multimedia Polska.

This quarter, BMI launches its new methodology for its Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings. The ratings assess the operational dangers to companies operating in Poland's telecoms industry, identify key issues and trends, and monitor economic and political developments. Poland still comfortably sits in the top half of our rankings table, benefiting from a competitive and well-regulated telecoms market.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Business Environment

Poland

Table: Emerging Europe Business Environment Ranking

Poland Telecoms Industry SWOT Analysis

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Fixed-Line

Table: Polish Telecoms Sector Fixed-line Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table – Polish Telecoms Sector Internet Historical Data & Forecasts

Mobile

Table: Polish Telecoms Sector Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Macroeconomic Climate

Growth Peaking In H106

Risks To Growth

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 5 - Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Competitive Landscape

Market Structure

Competitor Analysis

Table: Key Players: Poland Telecommunications Sector

Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators

Key Players

Fixed-Line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview

Internet

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview

Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Market Data Analysis

Fixed-Line

Table: Polish Local Market Q306

Internet

Table: Polish Broadband Market Q306

Mobile

Table: Polish Wireless Market, Q306

Table: Poland Mobile Market Net Additions, 2006

Industry Developments

Chapter 6 - Company Monitor

Regional Case Study: Alcatel

Table: Alcatel Recent European Contract Wins

Selected Profiles – Operators

Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA)

Netia

Polska Telefonia Cyfrowa (PTC)

Orange Poland

Polkomtel

Alcatel

Lucent Technologies

Chapter 7 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Chapter 8 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Europe Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of European Telecommunications Sources

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BMI's European Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:.