BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

In October 2007, Slovenia's mobile sector looked set to receive a competitive boost following the announcement that privately-owned Tušmobil had launched its own GSM/EDGE network. Tušmobil previously operated as a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) service over the network of mobile market incumbent Mobitel. BMI believes that Tušmobil's relaunch as a fully-fledged network operator will help to ensure that Slovenian mobile subscriber growth does not significantly slow down over the next few years. Our new revised mobile forecast for the country predicts that the sector will grow by 3.2% in 2008, raising penetration to 96.5%; we anticipate that, by the end of our forecast period in 2012, mobile penetration will have risen to 108%. Although this may sound low by regional standards, it is important to remember that the sector's main operators recently moved to discount inactive prepaid users from their reported subscriber totals. Meanwhile, the commercial launch, in September 2007, of 3G services by number two mobile operator Si.mobil, is expected to provide a major boost to the growth of mobile data and internet services. BMI has revised its 3G growth forecast for Slovenia, and now expect the number of users to have risen to 261,000 by the end of 2008 (representing over 13.5% of mobile users) and predict that, by 2012, nearly 25% of the country's mobile users will subscribe to 3G services.

One of the most significant developments currently facing Slovenia's telecoms market is the privatisation of fixed-line incumbent telco, Telekom Slovenije. In October 2007, having received a number of applications, the Slovenian government has granted a ‘registered bidder' status to several prospective owners of a 49.13% stake in the company. All interested parties were expected to produce a non-binding offer by mid-October 2007, with the selected bidders being then required to submit final bids on the basis of due diligence, followed by the auction stage. The government currently controls a majority 62.5% stake in Telekom Slovenije, although, via its interests in other state-owned funds, its indirect holding is actually 74%. The government plans to part-privatise the operator leaving it in control of a 25% plus one share stake. As a forerunner to its privatization, Telekom Slovenije has been busily consolidating its strategy around three main themes: international expansion, broadband acceleration and fixed-mobile convergence. International expansion has taken the form of acquiring controlling stakes in internet service providers in countries such as Albania and Bosnia & Herzegovina; recent acquisitions in these markets have added to the incumbent's existing presence in the internet and broadband sectors of Kosovo and Macedonia. Meanwhile domestically, Telekom Slovenije has accelerated its own broadband business through investing in WiMAX services and the construction of a fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network.

Despite Telekom Slovenije's ongoing dominance within the country's fixed-line sector, new data for 2006 has shown that alternative operators are slowly starting to steal market share from the incumbent. Telekom Slovenije's largest competitor in the fixed-line sector is the triple play operator, T2. However, the incumbent also faces growing competition from operators using local loop unbundling agreements, as well as those offering VoIP services.

Contents

[TOP]

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Fixed-Line

Table: Slovenian Telecoms Sector Fixed-lines Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table: Slovenian Telecoms Sector Internet Historical Data & Forecasts

Mobile

Table - Slovenian Telecoms Sector Mobile Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter 3 - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Caution As Growth Hits Six-Year High

Unemployment At 15-Year Low

Table: GDP, Output And Population

Chapter 4 - Country Snapshot: Slovenia Demographic Country Snapshot: Slovenia Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 5 - Business Environment

Emerging European Markets

Slovenia

Slovenia Telecoms Industry SWOT Analysis

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape

Market Structure

Table – Key Players: Slovenia Telecoms Sector

Table – Key Operators Financial Indicators

Key Players

Fixed-line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview

Internet

Table: Regional Internet Penetration Overview

Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Market Data Analysis

Fixed-Line

Internet

Mobile

Table: Slovenia Wireless Market Q206

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles

Telekom Slovenije

Mobitel

Simobil

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Sources

Chapter 9 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Wages (ave labour force per annum), US$ PPP

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Europe Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of European Telecommunications Sources

[TOP]

BMI's European Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:.