BMI's Executive Summary

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The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Telecomunications sector of Thailand

Thailand’s telecoms market is one of great contrasts. On the one hand, a poor fixed-line infrastructure provides minimal growth potential, whilst on the other a mature mobile market is facing saturation by 2009. The industry remains in the clutches of the Thai government, but at the same time, the other competitive cellular and broadband sectors are spurring on growth. Furthermore, although the NTC is slow in ruling on foreign ownership limitations and 3G licences, the regulator has been proactive in amending rules on access charges and interconnection.

Our forecasts for Thailand’s fixed-line sector remain unchanged. A penetration rate of approximately 10.5% currently, we project, will rise to just over 11% by the end of 2011. This is not where the action lies. One only has to look at True Corporation’s revenues for the first nine months of 2006 to realise this. As Thailand’s only fully integrated operator, fixed telephony revenues declined by 19% y-o-y during 9M06, whilst during the same time data revenues increased by 20.5% y-o-y and its consumer broadband business grew by 66% y-o-y, now accounting for 6% of the operator’s consolidated revenues. Meanwhile, True’s mobile unit saw its subscriber base grow by a 1.4mn during a single quarter, taking its total customer base to 6.8mn and a market share of 18.5%.

Low tariffs and a deeply competitive market are the factors behind cellular growth, with BMI estimating some 9mn new customers for 2006, which would represent y-o-y growth of 29.5%. We project that by the end of 2011, Thailand will have 65mn cellular subscribers and a penetration rate of 96%. Handset availability and the quality of content will drive (or not) 3G growth, and we expect over 10% of all Thailand’s mobile subscribers to be using 3G networks by the end of 2011. The fact that market leader AIS expects one fifth of its revenues to come from non-voice services by the end of 2007 suggests that next-generation mobile services are likely to become popular. The real growth engine remains Thailand’s broadband business, and BMI projects that the 1.3mn subscribers expected in 2006 will become 8.3mn by the end of 2011.

Thailand remains in 13th position in BMI’s Business Environment Rankings, with Vietnam actually reducing the gap between the two countries to half a point. However, there are signs that the Thai government and the NTC are beginning to turn things around. Rulings on access charges and agreements on interconnection rates are encouraging. There is still room for improvement, however. Thailand’s telecoms market is no closer to liberalisation and the regulator continues to drag its heels on 3G licensing. Furthermore, an uneasy political climate continues to hamper foreign investment as seen most clearly by the government’s vacillation over foreign ownership limits. However, in an important announcement for Thailand’s foreign investor community, Telenor has pledged its future to Thailand and opened its regional office in Bangkok.

Contents

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Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - Business Environment

Asia

Thailand

Table: Thailand Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Fixed-Line

Table: Thailand Telecoms Sector – Fixed Lines – Historical Data & Forecasts

Mobile

Table: Thailand Telecoms Sector – Mobiles – Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table: Thailand Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts

Multimedia

Table: Thailand Telecoms Sector – Multimedia – Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Feeling The Political Drag

Table: GDP, Output & Population

Chapter 5 - Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data

Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape

Market Overview

Competitor Analysis

Table: Key Players – Thai Telecoms Sector

Table: Selected Operators’ Financial Results

Key Players

Fixed-Line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview

Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Internet

Table: Regional Internet Penetration Overview

Market Data Analysis

Fixed Line

Mobile

Table: Thai Mobile Market Q206

Table: Thai Mobile Net Additions – Three Leading Operators, Q206

Table: Composition of AIS VAS Revenues – H106

3G

Industry Developments

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles

Regional Case Study – Motorola

Table: Motorola Net Sales by Region (US$mn)

Table: Motorola Market Sales by Locality of End Customer

Table: Leading Mobile Phone Handset Sales (mn) – Q306

TOT

SWOT

True Corporation

Advanced Info Services

DTAC

True Move

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Sources

Chapter 9 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data

Table- Manufacturing Wages (ave per annum), US$

Table - Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

Competitive Landscape for Asia Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of Asian Telecommunications Sources

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BMI's Asian Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: