BMI's Executive Summary

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There have been some interesting developments in the West and Central African mobile market since the publication of our last report. In an encouraging sign for competition and growth, a number of licence sales and privatisations have taken place. In Senegal, for example, Sudan's Sudatel recently won an international tender for the country's third mobile licence, beating off competition from a number of international players. The licence award is good news for the Senegalese market, which took a blow in Q207 from the imposition of mandatory SIM registration. An estimated 450,000 SIM cards were disconnected after their owners failed to provide the requisite identification, causing an overall decline in the market during the quarter. However, with registration procedures now in place and a third entrant on the horizon, we expect that growth picked up once more in the second half of the year.

Meanwhile, in Ghana, troubled second national operator Westel has finally been re-privatised, with the government selling a 75% controlling stake in the operator to Kuwait's Zain group, the parent company of pan-African mobile giant Celtel. The presence of such an experienced international player should mean that Ghana can finally reap the benefits of a fixed-line liberalisation process that began more than a decade ago. The sale will also fuel the already strong competition in the mobile market, given that Westel holds a GSM concession. We are further encouraged by signals that the government is preparing to sell a majority stake in Ghana Telecom, Westel's competitor. A number of international operators have already signalled their interest in the sale, including Singapore's SingTel.

Developments such as these are good news for the region, although a lack of progress in some other markets means that the differences in development within the region are likely to widen going forward. Growth in certain states, such as Mali and Cameroon, has been slow, which we believe is a direct consequence of inadequate competition, which is itself a symptom of wider regulatory and institutional issues. At the end of 2007, we expect mobile penetration rates within the region to vary from around 16% (Mali) to more than 65% (Gabon) and these disparities are likely to persist throughout the forecast period.

This quarter sees the launch of BMI's new business environment rankings for the African telecoms market, featuring a revised methodology which we think better captures the opportunities and risks that present themselves to potential investors in the region. We have also featured a more in-depth look at licensing issues in West Africa; although many of the countries examined do not feature in our report, they give an interesting example of the pitfalls of investing in some African states and provide a useful contrast with some of the more mature markets of the region.

Contents

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Executive Summary

Chapter - Market Overview

Cameroon

Cote d'Ivoire

Gabon

Ghana

Mali

Mauritania

Senegal

Chapter - Business Environment Rankings

Table: Africa Business Environment Ranking

Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: West & Central Africa Telecoms Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter - Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario

Cameroon

Table: Cameroon Macroeconomic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire

Table: Cote d'Ivoire Macroeconomic Forecast

Gabon

Table: Gabon Macroeconomic Forecast

Ghana

Table: Ghana Macroeconomic Forecasts

Mali

Table: Mali Macroeconomic Forecasts

Mauritania

Table: Mauritania Macroeconomic Forecasts

Senegal

Table: Senegal Macroeconomic Forecasts

Chapter - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players: West & Central Africa Telecoms Sector

Fixed-Line

Mobile

Cameroon

Table: Cameroon Mobile Market Q107

Cote d'Ivoire

Table: Cote d'Ivoire Mobile Market Q107

Gabon

Table: Gabon Mobile Market Q107

Ghana

Table: Ghana Mobile Market Q107

Mali

Table: Mali Mobile Market Q107

Mauritania

Table: Mauritania Mobile Market Q107

Senegal

Table: Senegal Mobile Market Q107

Chapter - Company Profiles

Regional Profile: MTN Emerges As Pan-African Giant

Table: MTN: Financial Results By Region, 2006 (ZAR mn)

Nigeria Remains Key

Expansion Strategy

Regional Profile: France Telecom's French-Speaking Focus

Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of Middle Eastern and African Telecommunications Sources

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BMI's Middle Eastern and African Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: