BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

Tourism Overview

According to revised official data, foreign visitor arrivals totalled 38.3mn in 2006, representing a favourable increase of some 6% year-on-year (y-o-y). Following a slowdown in growth in 2005, outbound Hungarian traveller numbers declined last year to some 16.6mn, a fall of 6.5% y-o-y. Latest data for H107 show foreign visitor arrivals totalled almost 17.3mn, compared with around 16.5mn in the same period of the previous year, representing a continuing favourable increase of 5% y-o-y. Meanwhile, there appears to have been a rebound in 2007 in outbound Hungarian traveller numbers, with travellers totalling about 7.9mn, up 3.6% y-o-y.

Forecast Scenario

Over the coming years, Hungary's main challenge will be to revive its regional competitiveness amid impressive growth figures among regional peers, such as Slovakia and Slovenia, which grew by 9.0% and 7.2% y-o-y in Q107 respectively. We are forecasting economic growth to slow to 3.2% this year from 3.9% in 2006, and expect growth to slow further to 2.9% in 2008. With Hungary's budget deficit likely to decline as a result of recent austerity measures, we expect public spending to pick up towards the end of the decade. This should aid economic growth in 2009, at which point we expect growth to pick up again to 4.5%. For the time being, solid eurozone growth will keep Hungary's exports buoyed. Based on the latest data for arrivals in 2007, BMI has moderated slightly the estimate for 2007 to around 40.4mn foreign visitors (up 5.5% y-o-y). We also maintain that growth in arrivals will slow further in 2008 and 2009, partly due to weaker economic conditions in key source markets, particularly Romania. Despite this, growth in arrivals should average a relatively favourable 4.4% per annum between 2008 and 2012 (our extended forecast period).

Hospitality

Following a fall of 7% y-o-y in the number of foreign tourist nights spent in all accommodation establishments in 2006, the most recent data show continuing weakness, with the number of foreign tourist nights down just over 3% y-o-y in the first seven months of 2007 (the number of nights by German tourists was down a marked 10% y-o-y).

Malév Hungarian Airlines

Latest data on passenger numbers in the first seven months of 2007 for the national flag carrier Malév Hungarian Airlines show reasonable growth of 5% y-o-y, while revenues in H107 were up some 7% yo- y. Malév also registered a considerable increase in passenger traffic on several routes in the period January-July, in particular on the Copenhagen, Tel Aviv and Tirgu Mures routes. Over the same period, the most profitable routes for the airline were Amsterdam, Copenhagen, London and Bucharest.

Wizz Air

During the 2007/08 winter season, Hungarian budget airline Wizz Air is introducing new flights and increasing capacity. In October 2007, the airline launched a new flight from Budapest to Milan (Bergamo) and increased frequencies on a number of its existing routes from its base in Budapest. Overall, during the current winter schedule, the capacity from Budapest will increase by 22% compared with a year earlier. In particular, this reflects strong growth in flights between Budapest and London (Luton), Rome (Ciampino), Paris (Beauvais) and Eindhoven. As part of Wizz Air's robust growth plan in Central and Eastern Europe, the airline will open its seventh new base in Poznan (Poland) in January 2008 and launch new routes.

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Tourism Overview

Forecast Scenario

Accommodation

Wizz Air

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Tourism Outlook

Table - Hungary Tourism: Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Hungarian Travel Industry - Historical Data & Forecasts

Tourism Industry SWOT

Chapter 3 - Forecast Scenario

Going Into The Downturn

Risks To Medium-Term Outlook

Table: Nominal And Real GDP

Chapter 4 - Travel

Commercial Airlines

Table: Key Players - Hungarian Airline Market (2005)

Car Rental Firms

Chapter 5 - Hospitality

Table: Structure of Accommodation Market

Accommodation

Table: Leading Operators - Hungarian Accommodation Sector (2005)

Accommodation Developments

Infrastructure

Chapter 6 - Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings

Table: Middle East, Europe & Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix

Long-term Political Risk

Country Business Environment

International Tourism Receipts

Visitor Arrival Growth

Investment Environment

Shock Factor

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles

Malév Hungarian Airlines SWOT

Malév Hungarian Airlines

Danubius Hotel and Spa Rt

Accor-Pannonia Hotels Rt

Wizz Air

Hilton

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Tourism Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Emerging Europe Tourism Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Comparative cross-border analysis assessing business and regulatory factors to rank Asia’s most competitive tourism markets. Indicators used include Political Risk, Business Environment Risk, Forecast International Tourism Receipts, Visitor Arrival Growth, Investment Environment and Shock Factors (taking account of any special factors such as terrorism, natural disasters and disease). Company SWOTs for leading resort, hotel, airline, travel and tourism operators in each market, including competitive intelligence on overall geographic presence, competitive positioning and relationships with international operators; % share of operator markets; % share of international arrivals and departures; % share of busiest domestic routes; main products and services; panregional expansion, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of European Tourism Sources

[TOP]

BMI's European Tourism Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, tourism industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: