New This Quarter

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Tourism Overview

Data for the first eight months of 2006 show foreign visitor arrivals totalled 42.3mn, up just 0.4% on the corresponding period of 2005. A main factor behind this disappointing performance was the decline over the period in the number of arrivals from the top two source markets (in 2005), Germany and the Czech Republic. Germany recorded a fall of 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), while arrivals from the Czech Republic continued to decline ? following a sharp fall in 2005 ? recording 11% fewer visitors than in the same period in the previous year. Germany?s share of total arrivals also diminished, compared with the aggregate position in 2005, accounting for some 55% of arrivals in the period January to August 2006. Relatively strong growth rates in arrivals, however, were recorded in other important source markets, including Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and Lithuania. Arrivals from Great Britain, meanwhile, were up a buoyant 33% y-o-y to some 300,000 visitors. The favourable increase in Polish departures abroad in 2005 ? stimulated in part by the growing number of low-cost airlines in the Polish market ? has continued into this year, with departures totalling 30.5mn, up 11% y-o-y in the first eight months of 2006.

Hospitality

Latest data, which include only part of the 2006 summer season, show some weakness in foreign arrivals. In H106, foreign tourist overnight stays in all collective accommodation establishments totalled around 4.4mn, which represents a fall of 4.4% y-o-y. Due to a more favourable increase in overnight stays by domestic residents, the total number of tourist overnight stays in H106 (foreign and domestic) amounted to just over 20mn, up 3.2% y-o-y.

Forecast Scenario

Although BMI had previously expected a slowdown in the growth rate of foreign visitor arrivals, we have, this quarter, revised down further our growth forecasts. Numbers are now expected to reach about 66mn in 2006, rising to around 74mn in 2010. The more moderate growth in arrivals over the medium term is premised on continuing relatively subdued economic conditions in the eurozone and the strength of the Polish zloty against the euro.

Hilton

The Hilton Hotels Corporation (HHC) is set to open its first hotel in Poland, the Hilton Warsaw Hotel and Convention Centre, in early 2007.

Chapter 1 - New This Quarter

Tourism Overview

Hospitality

Forecast Scenario

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Tourism Outlook

Table: Poland Tourism - Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Poland Travel - Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Visitor Arrivals by Source Market (2005)

Poland Tourism Industry SWOT

Business Environment Outlook

Business Environment SWOT

FDI Environment

Investment Climate

FDI Levels

Investment Opportunities

Chapter 3 - Forecast Scenario

Economic Activity

Table: Poland - Economic Activity

Chapter 4 - Travel

Commercial Airlines

Table: Key Players - Commercial Airlines (2005)

Chapter 5 - Hospitality

Accommodation

Table - Structure of Accommodation Market

Table - Orbis SA (2005)

Accommodation Developments

Infrastructure

Chapter 6 - Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings

Table: Middle East, Europe and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix

Country Business Environment

International Tourism Receipts

Visitor Arrival Growth

Investment Environment

Shock Factor

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles

LOT Polish Airlines

Air Polonia

Orbis SA

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Tourism Industry

Tourism sector data

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Emerging Europe Tourism Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Comparative cross-border analysis assessing business and regulatory factors to rank Asia’s most competitive tourism markets. Indicators used include Political Risk, Business Environment Risk, Forecast International Tourism Receipts, Visitor Arrival Growth, Investment Environment and Shock Factors (taking account of any special factors such as terrorism, natural disasters and disease). Company SWOTs for leading resort, hotel, airline, travel and tourism operators in each market, including competitive intelligence on overall geographic presence, competitive positioning and relationships with international operators; % share of operator markets; % share of international arrivals and departures; % share of busiest domestic routes; main products and services; panregional expansion, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of European Tourism Sources

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BMI's European Tourism Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, tourism industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: