BMI's Executive Summary

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Tourism Overview

After a decline of over 6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the number of foreign arrivals visiting Turkey in 2006, recent data indicate a very strong rebound. The most recent cumulative data for the period January to October 2007 show that the number of foreign arrivals totalled almost 21.1mn, a buoyant increase of 18.3% y-o-y. Over this period, the strongest growth rates in arrivals were recorded from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Asian countries and American countries (although from a low base). According to provisional data for the month of October, foreign arrivals were up a considerable 25.6% compared with the same month in 2006, at nearly 2.2mn. This quarter, BMI has also raised its growth estimate for tourist arrivals in 2007.

Forecast Scenario

As Q207 data points to continued weak household demand in Turkey, we are highlighting downside risks to our 2007 GNP growth estimate of 5.5%. That said, the longer-term picture is still extremely positive, with the monetary policy loosening forecast to begin in Q407 expected to be a major stimulus for growth in 2008 and beyond. As a result, we have revised upward our long-term GNP growth forecasts to 2012. After a rebound in foreign tourist arrivals in 2007, our forecast is for growth in arrivals to slow in 2008 and 2009, but annual average growth should amount to a favourable 5% over the extended period to 2012. Aside from bird flu and domestic political violence, this takes account of long-term appreciation of the Turkish lira and recent forecasts of a further slowdown in demand in key European economies – major source markets for Turkey – which are likely to dampen growth in visitor arrivals to Turkey over the next few years.

Hospitality

In the hospitality sector, recent data confirm the strength of the recovery in the tourism sector, with the total number of tourist (foreign and domestic) room nights in all accommodation establishments amounting to 59mn nights in Q207, up a marked 13% y-o-y. The number of foreign tourist room nights was up an even more impressive 16.7% y-o-y to 45mn nights over the same period.

Turkish Airlines

Turkey's national airline, Turkish Airlines (THY), continues to record buoyant growth in passenger numbers (after growth of 19.4% y-o-y in 2006), with the total number of passengers carried increasing by 16.6% y-o-y to 17mn in the period January to October 2007.

Atlasjet Airline Crash

In November 2007, tragedy struck the local charter carrier Atlasjet (which was subject to a terrorist incident in August 2007) when an MD 83 airliner, which took off from Istanbul to Isparta, near the Mediterranean coast, crashed attempting to land, killing all 57 people on board. The cause of the crash was not clear as weather conditions were normal and the aircraft had no known technical problems.

Chapter 1 - New This Quarter

Latest Statistics

Tax breaks to boost sector fortunes?

Successful papal visit to bolster flagging tourism?

Industry Overview

Turkey Tourism SWOT

VAT cuts imminent?

Tourism Outlook

Table: Turkey Source Market Data

Looking to India

Trends in 2006 tourist arrivals

Table: Tourism Historical Data And Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated)

Chapter 2 - Macroeconomic Scenario

Table: Economic Indicators

Chapter 3 - Travel

Commercial Airlines

Table: Key Players – Turkish Commercial Airlines 2006

Turkish Airlines To Launch Low-Cost Carrier?

Special Focus: Jet Costs

Table: Oil Price Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Hospitality

Accommodation

Table: Accommodation Sector Forecast

Hotel News

Health Tourism

Chapter 5 - Tourist Infrastructure

Tourism Business Environment Rankings

Table: Middle East and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix

Long-Term Political Risk

Country Business Environment

International Tourism Receipts

Visitor Arrival Growth

Investment Environment

Shock Factor

Chapter 6 - Regional Case Study – Accor

Key Statistics:

Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles

Turkish Airlines

Dedeman Hotels And Resorts International

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Tourism Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Tourism Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

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Comparative cross-border analysis assessing business and regulatory factors to rank Asia’s most competitive tourism markets. Indicators used include Political Risk, Business Environment Risk, Forecast International Tourism Receipts, Visitor Arrival Growth, Investment Environment and Shock Factors (taking account of any special factors such as terrorism, natural disasters and disease). Company SWOTs for leading resort, hotel, airline, travel and tourism operators in each market, including competitive intelligence on overall geographic presence, competitive positioning and relationships with international operators; % share of operator markets; % share of international arrivals and departures; % share of busiest domestic routes; main products and services; panregional expansion, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of Middle Eastern & African Tourism Sources

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BMI's Middle Eastern & African Tourism Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, tourism industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: