BMI's Executive Summary

[TOP]

Tourism Overview

Following an all-time record number of guests staying at Dubai hotels in 2006, the most recent data show tourist arrivals of nearly 2.9mn in H107, representing good growth of 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y). Moreover, indications suggest an equally favourable outturn in Q307. With Abu Dhabi on course to record even stronger growth in the tourism sector (after 10% y-o-y growth in arrivals in 2006), BMI estimates that the growth rate in visitor arrivals to the UAE in 2007 will be similar to that recorded in the previous year (a relatively strong 6% y-o-y).

Forecast Scenario

We stand by our view that real GDP growth in the UAE will remain strong, in spite of inflationary pressures. BMI estimates real GDP in 2006 at 9.0%, with another very good performance in 2007. We are projecting a rate of 7.1%, as a result of a small contraction in the oil sector (-2.6%), offset by continued outperformance in the non-oil sector (10.5%). Thereafter, we see a cyclical slowdown to 5.8% in 2008, 5.6% in 2009, 4.4% in 2010, 4.5% in 2011 and 3.9% in 2012.

Recent forecasts of a further slowdown in demand in key European economies and in the US – which together accounted for some 40% of total arrivals to the UAE in 2006 – suggest a less robust outlook for tourism over the next few years. Consequently, BMI anticipates a slower growth rate in tourist arrivals in 2008 and 2009, although average growth should remain favourable at over 4% y-o-y during the extended forecast period to 2012.

Hospitality

New data show an average of 74% occupancy (beds) was achieved by Dubai hotels in Q207 (after recording 88.3% in Q107). Reflecting relatively high occupancy rates, guest nights rose to just over 7.9mn in the first half of 2007, a very healthy increase of 15.2% y-o-y. Reports also indicate very strong growth in guest nights in Q307.

Emirates Airline

Interim results for Dubai government-owned Emirates Airlines for the first six months of its current financial year 2007-08 ending September 2007 were very impressive. Net profits totalled AED2.36bn (US$643mn), an increase of almost 100% on the same period in 2006. The results reflect a strong revenue performance largely driven by higher passenger demand, combined with higher yields. The number of passengers carried increased by 1.9mn or 23% to 10.3mn, compared with 8.4mn in the first half-year of 2006-07. Looking ahead, though, Emirates remains concerned about fuel costs and continued uncertainty surrounding the impact of recent credit issues in the financial markets on passenger demand.

Air Arabia

Sharjah-based Air Arabia recorded very strong results for the first three quarters of 2007. The airline reported net profit of AED280mn in the first nine months of 2007, up over 300% y-o-y. Over the same period, Air Arabia carried nearly 2mn passengers, up 55% y-o-y. In November 2007, Air Arabia ordered 34 aircraft from Airbus, with options for 15 more, in a contract worth up to US$3.5bn.

Chapter 1 - New This Quarter

Forecast Scenario

Hotels

Airlines: Boom Shows No Sign Of Abating

United Arab Emirates Tourism SWOT

Chapter 2 - Market Overview

Tourism Outlook

Table: UAE Travel Industry Historical Data And Forecasts

Table: UAE Tourism Historical Data And Forecasts

Political Outlook

Foreign Policy Outlook

Exchange Rate

Macroeconomic Activity

Table: Macroeconomic Indicators

Chapter 3 - Travel

Airports

Commercial Airlines

Table: Key Players UAE Commercial Airlines, 2004

Chapter 4 - Hospitality

Table: Accommodation Market Structure

New Projects And Hotels

Table: UAE, Selected Accommodation Projects

Acquisitions And Other News

Tourist Infrastructure

Middle East And Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings

Table: Middle East and Africa Tourism Business Environment Rankings Matrix

Long-Term Political Risk

Business Environment

International Tourism Receipts

Visitor Arrival Growth

Investment Environment

Shock Factor

Chapter 5 - Regional Case Study – Accor

Key Statistics:

Table: Accor Hotel Business in Selected Middle East and Africa Countries

Chapter 6 - Company Profiles

SWOT Analysis – Emirates Airlines

Gulf Air

Abu Dhabi National Hotels (ADNH)

Chapter 7 - BMI Forecast Modelling

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Tourism Industry

Sources

Competitive Landscape for Middle East & Africa Tourism Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

[TOP]

Comparative cross-border analysis assessing business and regulatory factors to rank Asia’s most competitive tourism markets. Indicators used include Political Risk, Business Environment Risk, Forecast International Tourism Receipts, Visitor Arrival Growth, Investment Environment and Shock Factors (taking account of any special factors such as terrorism, natural disasters and disease). Company SWOTs for leading resort, hotel, airline, travel and tourism operators in each market, including competitive intelligence on overall geographic presence, competitive positioning and relationships with international operators; % share of operator markets; % share of international arrivals and departures; % share of busiest domestic routes; main products and services; panregional expansion, merger and acquisition strategies.

Network of Middle Eastern & African Tourism Sources

[TOP]

BMI's Middle Eastern & African Tourism Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, tourism industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include: