In-depth country-focused analysis on Turkmenistan's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Our comprehensive assessment of Turkmenistan's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Turkmenistan, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Turkmenistan's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Turkmenistan before your competitors.

Country Risk

Turkmenistan Country Risk

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  • Kazakh economic activity will slow in 2015 and 2016 as production issues at the Kashagan oil field hurt export revenues and private consumption is constrained by rising inflation. However, the outlook over our 10-year forecast period has improved, with the government committing USD5.5bn to promoting economic diversification, a crucial step in weaning Kazakhstan off its hydrocarbon reliance.

  • The increasing frequency of ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan will continue to damage the country's security profile. This will in turn discourage long-term foreign investment and threaten the longevity of the government in Bishkek.

  • Tajikistan faces two significant security threats in the years ahead; the return of...

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Turkmenistan Industry Coverage (3)

Defence & Security

Turkmenistan Defence & Security

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BMI View:  At present, Kazakhstan and the other four Central Asia countries, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan have limited defence budgets, yet numerous requirements. While BMI expects these budgets to increase incrementally over the coming years, BMI also expects the budgetary and underdevelopment challenges to limit those increases considerably. These countries face numerous internal and external security challenges, including border disputes, criminality, and domestic and transnational terrorism.

BMI expects Kazakhstan's defence spending to have reached USD2.4bn by the end of 2014 and USD2.6bn by the end...

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Oil & Gas

Turkmenistan Oil & Gas

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BMI View:  Turkmenistan's growing gas reserves have the country's energy profile on a positive trajectory, as reflected by our forecasts for strong growth in gas production over the coming years. Our forecast for gas production to reach 108.8bcm per annum by 2018 implies an average growth rate of 7.4% per annum. The country's rising potential is supporting a significant strengthening of ties with China, with whom it shares the China-Central Asia Pipeline, which is slated to provide approximately 40% of China's gas imports by 2020. 

Headline Forecasts (Turkmenistan 2012-2018)
  2012e ...

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Turkmenistan Telecommunications

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BMI View: The return of MTS to Uzbekistan is a strong indicator for the potentially high rewards that the Central Asian region offers. Uzbekistan's low penetration and high population size means it is the most attractive market from an organic growth outlook. Russian telecoms operator Multiregional Transit Telecom (MTT) has also entered the region as an mobile virtual network operator (MVNO); the first of its kind it will be able to tap into the large numbers of migrant workers living in Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Demand will...

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